Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session10 Jul 2026 verified close
A daily reading of the forces shaping Tanzania’s economy, markets and statecraft — and the world that moves them. Information and education, never advice.
Week ahead — frozen at Sunday’s publication, framing the week to come off the 10 Jul 2026 verified close (the last verified session). Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.
Weekly market scoreboard
2026-07-10 close · change ON THE WEEK · DSE · BoT · NBS
DSE All-Share
4,082.43
▼ -0.83%
DSEI · 10 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
8,918.27
▼ -0.88%
USD / TZS
2,634
▲ +0.19%
BoT mean · hard-currency lens
Gold · $/oz
$4,111
▼ -1.26%
world spot · reserve/hedge lens
BoT rate
6.25%
policy
CBR · policy anchor
91-day T-bill
3.35%
▼ -11bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction
364-day T-bill
7.03%
▲ +20bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction
Inflation
4.2%
latest print
NBS · monthly
The read: the Friday close, with the move across the whole week beside it — not the one-session change the daily Brief shows. The implication: the index level alone never says whether the week was broad or carried by a couple of names — breadth and turnover do.
DSE weekly tape check
DSE · 4 verified sessions to 2026-07-10 · Tue 7 Jul — Saba Saba Day, market holiday
Sessions
4
verified DSE closes
Weekly turnover
TZS 159.9bn
sum of the week's value traded
Breadth
1 up / 2 down
5 unchanged · counters that moved across the week
Best session
-0.02%
2026-07-08
Worst session
-0.33%
2026-07-06
Peak concentration
98%
CRDB carried 2026-07-10
Concentration by session — the top name’s share of each session’s turnover
2026-07-06 · NMB
63%
2026-07-08 · NMB
52%
2026-07-09 · NMB
40%
2026-07-10 · CRDB
98%
What the index hid: highly concentrated — the single heaviest name took 98% of one session’s turnover. A week can look active and still be carried by one counter. Each close, fully broken down — After the Bell →
The market under the index
DSE · weekly move per counter to 2026-07-10
The read: 1 up, 2 down, 5 unchanged across the week, ordered by how much of the tape each name actually carried. The implication: a broad week and a bank-led week can print the same index number.
Open the full DSE breadth board →
DSE+7.6%financials
EABL-2.0%industrials
JATU+0.0%other
JHL+0.0%financials
KA-4.2%aviation
SWALA+0.0%energy
USL+0.0%other
YETU+0.0%financials
The hurdle rate
Bank of Tanzania · WARs as at 2026-07-15
CBR · policy anchor
6.25%
91-day WAR · the front end
3.35%
182-day WAR
4.78%
364-day WAR · income anchor
7.03%
How to read this: short government paper is the opportunity cost of taking equity risk. Why it matters: the higher the front end sits, the more dividends, earnings growth and liquidity equities must deliver to clear it. Educational — not advice.
The transmission chain
How a weaker shilling reaches the shopping basket
The shilling
USD/TZS 2,637
▲ +0.19%
2026-07-23 · Bank of Tanzania
→
Fuel cap
Diesel TZS 4,182/l
▼ -1.55%
2026-07 · EWURA · monthly cap
→
Food
Maize TZS 76,250/t
▼ -0.33%
2026-07-01 · Wholesale · MIT
→
Cost of living
CPI 4.2%
latest print
May 2026 headline · NBS · monthly
How to read this: each link carries its own authority and its own lag — FX moves daily, fuel caps monthly, food weekly, CPI monthly. Why it matters: this is the chain that turns a currency move into a cost-of-living move. Descriptive, not predictive — the links are shown, not forecast.
KANZA CAPITAL PARTNERSThe Weekly Brief
The DSE week to 10 Jul
DSEI -0.83% · TSI -0.88% · USD/TZS +0.19% on the week
Read: Headline and domestic agreed, the shilling gave ground.
Weekly moves computed from verified closes · 2026-07-10kanzacapitalpartners.com · education, not advice
The week card — built to be screenshotted and shared. Every figure is computed from the verified record.
The week in 90 seconds
Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambition
Monday's test: does the tape normalise once the CRDB crossing clears?
The pass-through test: an auction is expected mid-week, and the front end is still ~280bp below policy
The setup in one sentence: a market that spent last week drifting lower on negative breadth walks into a week with two dated events that both bear on the same arithmetic — what a saver earns risk-free, and whether the state's $1tn ambition arrives with financing attached. Nothing in the coming week is priced; everything in it is dated. The honest posture is to name what would change the read rather than guess which way it changes.
Equities
Reopens off four declines and a block-distorted tape. What would change the read: breadth turning positive at ordinary turnover.
Rates
CBR 6.25%; 91-day 3.45%, 364-day 7.12%. What would change the read: a 91-day WAR that steps toward policy at the expected mid-week auction.
FX / Gold
Shilling drifting ~0.2%/week; gold near $4,111. What would change the read: a drift that accelerates through the launch week.
Policy
Vision 2050 lands Friday. What would change the read: named financing vehicles and signed MoUs, not the headline target.
Macro
May CPI 4.2%. What would change the read: a June print outside the 3–5% band.
Educational reading of the week · not advice
What this week means
New Tanzanian investor
Two numbers are worth learning this week. The auction yield is what your money earns with no market risk; the index is what it earns with risk. The gap between them is why anyone bothers with equities at all.
Diaspora investor
The shilling eased 0.19% last week. Before you judge any TZS return next week, subtract the currency: at USD/TZS 2,634 a flat market in shillings is a slightly negative one in dollars.
Institutional reader
Friday's crossing was 98% of the day's turnover. Next week's liquidity read should be board turnover excluding blocks — otherwise a single tranche will look like market depth.
Foreign investor
The 364-day bill at 7.12% is the hurdle any Tanzanian equity allocation must clear. If the expected mid-week auction lifts the front end toward the 6.25% CBR, that hurdle rises before any earnings do.
Educational interpretation by reader type · not personalised advice.
Did the domestic-only and all-share indices tell the same story over the covered quarter?
The domestic market against the headline index
2026-04-09 = 100 · frozen at the 2026-07-10 covered session
+3.9%TSI · quarter+4.6%DSEI · quarter
Coverage 2026-04-09 → 2026-07-10Vintage 2026-07-10 · finalRevision current · v0
Only declared transformations and compatible comparisons are enabled. The exact state is retained in the URL.
Reuse package · edition 2026-07-10-77bc1a941dbd
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
Citation and sharing permitted; observation download remains source-restricted.
Read: The rebased paths show the part of the domestic move that the broader headline index does—and does not—capture.
Index scope differs. Neither line is the return of every constituent or of a reader’s portfolio.
The week ahead
Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambition
Signal
The market reopens Monday off 4,082.43 — four straight small declines and one TZS 137.7bn CRDB crossing behind it — into a week that carries an expected T-bill auction and Friday's Vision 2050 launch.
Why it matters
Both events speak to the same arithmetic. The auction tells you what a saver can earn risk-free; the launch tells you whether the $1tn ambition has named financing vehicles behind it, or only a podium.
What to watch
Whether the 91-day WAR (3.45%) starts closing the ~280bp gap to the 6.25% CBR, whether June CPI holds the 3–5% band, and whether CRDB's tape normalises once Friday's crossing clears.
Monday's test: does the tape normalise once the CRDB crossing clears?
Signal
Friday's TZS 140.2bn turnover was 98% one CRDB block (TZS 137.7bn, 58.5m shares); every other session in the week ran TZS 4–9bn. Breadth was negative all week — 7 counters up, 16 down.
Why it matters
A single crossing can flatter a week's liquidity and tell you nothing about demand. The honest read of next week's tape is board turnover excluding blocks, and whether breadth turns.
What to watch
Whether a second CRDB tranche follows, and whether bank breadth reasserts at ordinary (non-block) turnover.
Source: DSE · Edition 12 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies — and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.
Choose Daily, Weekly, or both — they are separate subscriptions. Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.
Rates
The pass-through test: an auction is expected mid-week, and the front end is still ~280bp below policy
Signal
The last auction (No. 1202, 2 Jul) left the 91-day WAR at 3.45%, the 182-day at 4.70% and the 364-day at 7.12%, against a CBR of 6.25%. BoT's observed cadence points to the next auction around 16 Jul — an inferred date, not an official BoT calendar entry.
Why it matters
A policy rate the short bill ignores is a policy rate that isn't transmitting. The 364-day already clears the CBR; the 91-day does not. Which end moves next is the week's most decision-relevant print.
What to watch
Whether the 91-day WAR steps toward 6.25%, and whether the 364-day holds above 7%.
Source: BoT · Edition 12 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
June CPI is the first clean read on the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike
Signal
May headline inflation printed 4.2% (April 4.0%). The June print is due mid-month.
Why it matters
It is the first month in which both the fuel-subsidy exit and the 2 Jul CBR move can show up. A print that holds inside the 3–5% band supports the current policy posture; one that doesn't reframes the rates conversation.
What to watch
The headline number against the 3–5% band, and food vs energy contribution.
Source: NBS · Edition 12 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
Vision 2050 launches Friday — read the financing, not the target
Signal
Dira 2050 launches in Dodoma on 17 Jul: a $1tn-economy, $7,000-per-capita ambition across nine priority sectors, with the first five-year tranche funded at TZS 12.50tn and donor grants set to fall ~39%.
Why it matters
With grants shrinking, the path leans on mobilising private and external capital. The market-relevant content of the launch is which flagship projects — LNG-Lindi foremost — leave the podium with named vehicles and co-investors.
What to watch
Named financing vehicles, investment MoUs signed around 17 Jul, and any listed-sector read-through (banks, cement, energy).
Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 12 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
FX / Gold
The shilling's drift is small — but it is the diaspora's whole return story
Signal
USD/TZS closed the week at 2,634.46 on BoT's 10 Jul sheet, easing 0.19% on the week; gold's BoT reference mark sat near $4,111/oz.
Why it matters
A 0.19% weekly drift changes nothing for a local saver and everything for a hard-currency one: it is subtracted from every TZS return before it reaches a diaspora reader.
What to watch
Whether the drift persists through the Vision 2050 week, and whether BoT's gold-reserve accumulation keeps supporting the currency story.
Source: BoT · Edition 12 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.12% since inception. Its largest equity model-book allocation is a bank, so the week's two dated events — the auction (the hurdle a bank must beat) and the launch (the credit demand it might fund) — are the terrain it reads most closely.
Ghost relevance: For a bank-weighted model book, this week is a rates week before it is an equity week: the hurdle rate set at the auction is the same rate a bank's deposit franchise competes against, and Friday's launch is the demand side of the same balance sheet. Educational only; a model-book allocation, never a position or a recommendation.
How these were chosen: not hand-picked — the name that carried the tape, the week’s biggest gain and steepest fall, then the heaviest remaining names. Educational context only — not a recommendation, and never a price target.
Whether Friday's TZS 137.7bn crossing draws a second tranche, and whether board turnover and breadth normalise once it clears.
~Thu 16 Jul 2026 (inferred cadence, not an official BoT calendar date)
T-bill auction No. 1203 (expected)
The pass-through test: does the 91-day WAR (3.45%) start closing the ~280bp gap to the 6.25% CBR, and does the 364-day hold above 7%?
~mid-Jul 2026
June CPI print
First clean read on the fuel-subsidy exit and the 2 Jul hike; the 3–5% band is the test.
Fri 17 Jul 2026
Vision 2050 (Dira 2050) launch, Dodoma
Which flagship projects get named financing vehicles and private co-investors — the week's set-piece.
Get the Weekly Brief every weekend.
A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies — and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.
Choose Daily, Weekly, or both — they are separate subscriptions. Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.
Week-ahead edition — a forward framing of Mon 13 – Fri 17 Jul, frozen to the Friday official close (10 Jul 2026). Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only — not investment advice, and not a forecast. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (10 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania; inflation to the NBS. Dated events are published only where the date is verified; the ~16 Jul auction is an inferred cadence, not an official calendar entry. For live market updates see Markets.