USD / TZS 2,636364-day T-bill 7.03%BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.0% 16 Jul 2026 verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 198
Friday, 17 July 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session16 Jul 2026 verified close

A daily reading of the forces shaping Tanzania’s economy, markets and statecraft — and the world that moves them. Information and education, never advice.

The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Thursday, 16 July 2026 — the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.

DSE All-Share
4,102.94▲ 0.28%
DSEI · 16 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
8,940.29
TSI · 16 Jul · domestic
USD / TZS
2,636
BoT indicative mean · 16 Jul sheet
BoT rate
6.25%
CBR · Q3 2026
91-day T-bill
3.35%
BoT WAR · latest auction
364-day T-bill
7.03%
BoT WAR · latest auction
Inflation
4.0%
NBS · Jun 2026 headline
Today in 60 seconds
  1. CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negative
  2. The latest T-bill auction moves three of four tenors lower
  3. Same-date ETF gaps show why NAV publication clocks cannot be hidden
WatchT-bill auction No. 1204≈29 Jul 2026 · cadence-inferred, not an official BoT date
Read the full Brief ↓

Did the domestic-only and all-share indices tell the same story over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

2026-04-15 = 100 · frozen at the 2026-07-16 covered session

+1.5%TSI · quarter+2.6%DSEI · quarter
Coverage 2026-04-15 → 2026-07-16 Vintage 2026-07-16 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateIndexRebasedRaw level
2026-04-15Tanzania Share Index1008,812.12
2026-04-16Tanzania Share Index98.97818,722.07
2026-04-17Tanzania Share Index97.79768,618.04
2026-04-20Tanzania Share Index97.2488,569.61
2026-04-21Tanzania Share Index97.14238,560.3
2026-04-22Tanzania Share Index97.1058,557.01
2026-04-23Tanzania Share Index96.50618,504.23
2026-04-24Tanzania Share Index96.05128,464.15
2026-04-27Tanzania Share Index95.74968,437.57
2026-04-28Tanzania Share Index96.66958,518.63
2026-04-29Tanzania Share Index98.17568,651.35
2026-04-30Tanzania Share Index98.44638,675.21
2026-05-04Tanzania Share Index97.11578,557.95
2026-05-05Tanzania Share Index95.89478,450.36
2026-05-06Tanzania Share Index94.8068,354.42
2026-05-07Tanzania Share Index93.9788,281.45
2026-05-08Tanzania Share Index95.01548,372.87
2026-05-11Tanzania Share Index96.51558,505.06
2026-05-12Tanzania Share Index96.50538,504.16
2026-05-13Tanzania Share Index96.09148,467.69
2026-05-14Tanzania Share Index95.52068,417.39
2026-05-15Tanzania Share Index95.42548,409
2026-05-18Tanzania Share Index95.86698,447.91
2026-05-19Tanzania Share Index96.00748,460.29
2026-05-20Tanzania Share Index95.74068,436.78
2026-05-21Tanzania Share Index96.74788,525.53
2026-05-22Tanzania Share Index97.1648,562.21
2026-05-25Tanzania Share Index98.85088,710.85
2026-05-26Tanzania Share Index99.4698,765.33
2026-05-28Tanzania Share Index99.69988,785.67
2026-05-29Tanzania Share Index99.5738,774.49
2026-06-01Tanzania Share Index100.00358,812.43
2026-06-02Tanzania Share Index100.6558,869.84
2026-06-03Tanzania Share Index100.2158,831.07
2026-06-04Tanzania Share Index100.55738,861.23
2026-06-05Tanzania Share Index100.02768,814.55
2026-06-08Tanzania Share Index100.06558,817.89
2026-06-09Tanzania Share Index99.62298,778.89
2026-06-10Tanzania Share Index99.03078,726.7
2026-06-11Tanzania Share Index98.06158,641.3
2026-06-12Tanzania Share Index97.52618,594.12
2026-06-15Tanzania Share Index96.47358,501.36
2026-06-16Tanzania Share Index97.51928,593.51
2026-06-17Tanzania Share Index97.80468,618.66
2026-06-18Tanzania Share Index98.26238,658.99
2026-06-19Tanzania Share Index98.14358,648.52
2026-06-22Tanzania Share Index97.85518,623.11
2026-06-23Tanzania Share Index97.73048,612.12
2026-06-24Tanzania Share Index97.99848,635.74
2026-06-25Tanzania Share Index98.23258,656.37
2026-06-26Tanzania Share Index98.81198,707.42
2026-06-29Tanzania Share Index99.11778,734.37
2026-06-30Tanzania Share Index99.60268,777.1
2026-07-01Tanzania Share Index100.52768,858.61
2026-07-02Tanzania Share Index101.13318,911.97
2026-07-03Tanzania Share Index102.0998,997.09
2026-07-06Tanzania Share Index101.92438,981.69
2026-07-08Tanzania Share Index101.6688,959.11
2026-07-09Tanzania Share Index101.36688,932.56
2026-07-10Tanzania Share Index101.20468,918.27
2026-07-13Tanzania Share Index101.14018,912.59
2026-07-14Tanzania Share Index100.92438,893.57
2026-07-15Tanzania Share Index101.37178,933
2026-07-16Tanzania Share Index101.45458,940.29
2026-04-15DSE All Share1003,998.65
2026-04-16DSE All Share98.95343,956.8
2026-04-17DSE All Share97.95813,917
2026-04-20DSE All Share97.39743,894.58
2026-04-21DSE All Share97.1563,884.93
2026-04-22DSE All Share97.21213,887.17
2026-04-23DSE All Share96.60163,862.76
2026-04-24DSE All Share96.54413,860.46
2026-04-27DSE All Share96.30633,850.95
2026-04-28DSE All Share97.00723,878.98
2026-04-29DSE All Share97.91253,915.18
2026-04-30DSE All Share98.01483,919.27
2026-05-04DSE All Share96.91973,875.48
2026-05-05DSE All Share95.95093,836.74
2026-05-06DSE All Share95.13293,804.03
2026-05-07DSE All Share94.55123,780.77
2026-05-08DSE All Share95.38623,814.16
2026-05-11DSE All Share96.43553,856.12
2026-05-12DSE All Share96.68963,866.28
2026-05-13DSE All Share96.11243,843.2
2026-05-14DSE All Share95.81183,831.18
2026-05-15DSE All Share95.74933,828.68
2026-05-18DSE All Share96.07523,841.71
2026-05-19DSE All Share96.17173,845.57
2026-05-20DSE All Share95.78763,830.21
2026-05-21DSE All Share96.52963,859.88
2026-05-22DSE All Share96.9093,875.05
2026-05-25DSE All Share98.06933,921.45
2026-05-26DSE All Share98.51623,939.32
2026-05-28DSE All Share98.45523,936.88
2026-05-29DSE All Share98.42023,935.48
2026-06-01DSE All Share98.73833,948.2
2026-06-02DSE All Share99.04623,960.51
2026-06-03DSE All Share98.85813,952.99
2026-06-04DSE All Share99.09293,962.38
2026-06-05DSE All Share98.38523,934.08
2026-06-08DSE All Share98.57883,941.82
2026-06-09DSE All Share98.42523,935.68
2026-06-10DSE All Share98.21813,927.4
2026-06-11DSE All Share97.45013,896.69
2026-06-12DSE All Share97.23383,888.04
2026-06-15DSE All Share96.56913,861.46
2026-06-16DSE All Share97.46893,897.44
2026-06-17DSE All Share97.84133,912.33
2026-06-18DSE All Share98.78633,950.12
2026-06-19DSE All Share98.54553,940.49
2026-06-22DSE All Share97.87883,913.83
2026-06-23DSE All Share97.95513,916.88
2026-06-24DSE All Share98.32293,931.59
2026-06-25DSE All Share99.51463,979.24
2026-06-26DSE All Share100.66174,025.11
2026-06-29DSE All Share101.03514,040.04
2026-06-30DSE All Share101.25424,048.8
2026-07-01DSE All Share101.46474,057.22
2026-07-02DSE All Share102.28734,090.11
2026-07-03DSE All Share102.9534,116.73
2026-07-06DSE All Share102.60814,102.94
2026-07-08DSE All Share102.58614,102.06
2026-07-09DSE All Share102.26554,089.24
2026-07-10DSE All Share102.09524,082.43
2026-07-13DSE All Share102.05094,080.66
2026-07-14DSE All Share102.03394,079.98
2026-07-15DSE All Share102.31834,091.35
2026-07-16DSE All Share102.60814,102.94

Read: The rebased paths show the part of the domestic move that the broader headline index does—and does not—capture.

Index scope differs. Neither line is the return of every constituent or of a reader’s portfolio.

DSE Tape Check

Market breadth
Broad decline
8 rose, 12 fell
Advancers against decliners on the verified DSE close.
Turnover concentration
Block-driven
One name carried the tape
CRDB Bank was 93% of turnover — index moves overstate how broad the day really was.

Descriptive flags from the verified DSE close — not signals, predictions, or advice. The official close, fully broken down — After the Bell →

Verified close

CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negative

Signal

DSE turnover reached TZS 55.20bn on 16 Jul; CRDB supplied TZS 51.42bn, while 8 names rose, 12 fell and 8 were flat.

Why it matters

The index rose to 4,102.94 (+0.28%), but falling breadth and one-name concentration make turnover and breadth tell different stories.

What to watch

Whether the next verified close retains value beyond CRDB and whether advancers again outnumber decliners.

Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange · Observed 16 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
Auction curve

The latest T-bill auction moves three of four tenors lower

Signal

At auction 1203, 35-, 91- and 364-day yields fell; only the 182-day rose, to 4.78% from 4.70%.

Why it matters

A non-parallel move means the curve carries more information than the 364-day headline alone.

What to watch

The next complete auction and whether short tenors keep easing while the 182-day remains firmer.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 17 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
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ETF vintages

Same-date ETF gaps show why NAV publication clocks cannot be hidden

Signal

IEACLC closed 1.0% above same-date NAV on 16 Jul; VERTEX's latest matched gap was 9.7% below NAV on 19 Jun.

Why it matters

One current and one historical match show why carrying an old NAV forward would create a false daily series.

What to watch

The next dated VERTEX NAV, the next verified closes and how the matched-gap distribution changes.

Source: Fund-manager NAV records and Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange closes · Edition 17 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Currency

USD/TZS is almost unchanged on the latest BoT indicative sheet

Signal

The official mean was TZS 2,636.23 per dollar on 16 Jul, up 0.01% from TZS 2,635.89 on 15 Jul.

Why it matters

The level is stable day to day; the historical-band view tests context without turning that stability into a forecast.

What to watch

The next BoT observation and whether the level remains inside its recent observed range.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 17 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Wire source gate

A reported credit slowdown stays a candidate until the BoT series confirms it

Signal

The fresh Wire handoff surfaced a Daily News report of slower private-credit growth; it contained no primary-source card.

Why it matters

Without the BoT aggregate and sector table, KCP cannot quantify the move or attach it to a reporting period.

What to watch

The next BoT credit series and CRDB/NMB results; until then this remains a candidate, not a verified fact.

Source: Daily News, surfaced by the KCP Wire handoff · Edition 17 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.26% since inception at the 16 Jul mark, with NMB Bank its largest equity allocation.

Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book — educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →
Week ahead — what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
≈29 Jul 2026 · cadence-inferred, not an official BoT dateT-bill auction No. 1204Whether the latest non-parallel curve move persists across short and long tenors
Manager publication scheduleNext dated VERTEX NAVA dated value restores a defensible same-date premium or discount comparison
Next monthly monetary publicationNext BoT private-sector credit releaseThe primary aggregate and sector table determine whether the Wire candidate becomes a verified story
Early Aug 2026NBS July CPI releaseWhether transport pressure changes the 4.0% headline and its published composition
After exchange publication and EOD reconciliationNext verified DSE closeWhether turnover broadens beyond CRDB and market breadth recovers
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Compiled from public sources for information and education only — not investment advice. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (16 Jul 2026); rates and FX to the Bank of Tanzania; ETF NAVs to fund-manager records and closes to the DSE; inflation to the NBS. The Wire handoff contained no primary-source cards, so its reported credit item remains a candidate rather than a verified figure.

Archive — past editions32
The rise broadens into industrials and services — but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks — but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high — while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar — so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026The DSE claws back its early-July dip — up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its recordSaturday, 18 July 2026The crossing did not repeat — turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessionsThursday, 16 July 2026CRDB alone was 97% of Tuesday's board — TZS 73.4bn on 27.2m shares as the All-Share eased a sixth sessionWednesday, 15 July 2026Inflation eases to 4.0% in June — the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band testTuesday, 14 July 2026The DSE reopens at 4,082.43 with four declines behind it and the week's two dated events aheadMonday, 13 July 2026Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambitionSunday, 12 July 2026Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tapeSaturday, 11 July 2026The DSE eases in its first full session back as a mild foreign net-selling tilt meets thin breadthFriday, 10 July 2026Saba Saba reframed as a managed trade showcase as the runway to the 17 July Vision 2050 launch clearsThursday, 9 July 2026Saba Saba passes as a shutdown, not a clash: Kariakoo deserted under heavy security as the market reopensWednesday, 8 July 2026Saba Saba day: DSE closed and security deployed across Dar, with a quiet commemoration the base caseTuesday, 7 July 2026Saba Saba eve: rally ban enforced with deployments across Dar as the TPDF warns off protest callsMonday, 6 July 2026Bank of Tanzania lifts the policy rate to 6.25%, the first tightening of the cycleSunday, 5 July 2026DSE All-Share caps a record week at 4,116.73 with a third straight all-time highSaturday, 4 July 2026DSE All-Share extends the record run to 4,090.11 as banks carry the fiscal-year openFriday, 3 July 2026DSE All-Share opens the fiscal year at a record 4,057.22 as domestic counters leadThursday, 2 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and Vision 2050 take legal effect as the execution clock startsWednesday, 1 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and DIRA 2050 take legal effect tomorrow as the fiscal year turnsTuesday, 30 June 2026DIRA 2050's implementation instruments launch today as Tanzania's new fiscal year opensMonday, 29 June 2026Tanzania opens its new fiscal year: DIRA 2050 instruments launch Monday, DSE reopens above 4,000Sunday, 28 June 2026DSE All-Share jumps 2.38% to 4,025 as cross-listed banks outpace the domestic tapeFriday, 26 June 2026Tanzania enters 2026/27 with a record budget and a 25-year horizonThursday, 25 June 2026Vision 2050 launch nears as DIRA planning instruments reach parliamentWednesday, 24 June 2026DIRA 2050 launches 1 July with a $47bn strategic-project spineTuesday, 23 June 2026TZS 62.33tn FY2026/27 budget takes effect 1 JulyMonday, 22 June 2026Samia to launch Vision (Dira) 2050 instruments on 29 JuneSunday, 21 June 2026