USD / TZS 2,637Gold · $/oz $4,023BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.0% Week to 2026-07-17 · verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 199
Saturday, 18 July 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session17 Jul 2026 verified close

A daily reading of the forces shaping Tanzania’s economy, markets and statecraft — and the world that moves them. Information and education, never advice.

Weekly overview — the week in review, frozen at Saturday’s publication and covering the 17 Jul 2026 verified close (the week’s last verified session). Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.


Weekly market scoreboard

2026-07-17 close · change ON THE WEEK · DSE · BoT · NBS
DSE All-Share
4,111.98
▲ +0.72%
DSEI · 17 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
8,969.32
▲ +0.57%
USD / TZS
2,637
▲ +0.08%
BoT mean · hard-currency lens
Gold · $/oz
$4,023
▼ -2.94%
world spot · reserve/hedge lens
BoT rate
6.25%
policy
CBR · policy anchor
91-day T-bill
3.35%
▼ -10bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction
364-day T-bill
7.03%
▼ -9bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction
Inflation
4.0%
latest print
NBS · monthly

The read: the Friday close, with the move across the whole week beside it — not the one-session change the daily Brief shows. The implication: the index level alone never says whether the week was broad or carried by a couple of names — breadth and turnover do.

DSE weekly tape check

DSE · 5 verified sessions to 2026-07-17
Sessions
5
verified DSE closes
Weekly turnover
TZS 177.0bn
sum of the week's value traded
Breadth
0 up / 0 down
1 unchanged · counters that moved across the week
Best session
+0.28%
2026-07-15
Worst session
-0.04%
2026-07-13
Peak concentration
97%
CRDB carried 2026-07-14
Concentration by session — the top name’s share of each session’s turnover
2026-07-13 · KCB
35%
2026-07-14 · CRDB
97%
2026-07-15 · NMB
45%
2026-07-16 · CRDB
93%
2026-07-17 · CRDB
96%

What the index hid: highly concentrated — the single heaviest name took 97% of one session’s turnover. A week can look active and still be carried by one counter. Each close, fully broken down — After the Bell →

The hurdle rate

Bank of Tanzania · WARs as at 2026-07-15
CBR · policy anchor
6.25%
91-day WAR · the front end
3.35%
182-day WAR
4.78%
364-day WAR · income anchor
7.03%

How to read this: short government paper is the opportunity cost of taking equity risk. Why it matters: the higher the front end sits, the more dividends, earnings growth and liquidity equities must deliver to clear it. Educational — not advice.

The transmission chain

How a weaker shilling reaches the shopping basket
The shilling
USD/TZS 2,637
▲ +0.08%
2026-07-23 · Bank of Tanzania
Fuel cap
Diesel TZS 4,182/l
▼ -1.55%
2026-07 · EWURA · monthly cap
Food
Maize TZS 76,250/t
▼ -0.33%
2026-07-01 · Wholesale · MIT
Cost of living
CPI 4.0%
latest print
June 2026 headline · NBS · monthly

How to read this: each link carries its own authority and its own lag — FX moves daily, fuel caps monthly, food weekly, CPI monthly. Why it matters: this is the chain that turns a currency move into a cost-of-living move. Descriptive, not predictive — the links are shown, not forecast.

KANZA CAPITAL PARTNERSThe Weekly Brief
The DSE week to 17 Jul
DSEI +0.72% · TSI +0.57% · USD/TZS +0.08% on the week
Read: Headline and domestic agreed.
Weekly moves computed from verified closes · 2026-07-17kanzacapitalpartners.com · education, not advice

The week card — built to be screenshotted and shared. Every figure is computed from the verified record.

The week in 90 seconds
  1. The DSE claws back its early-July dip — up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its record
  2. The index rose 0.72% — but more names fell than rose
  3. The mid-week auction pushed the front end further from policy, not toward it
WatchT-bill auction follow-throughnext auction ~29 Jul 2026
Read the full Brief ↓
Market mood

A recovery week, quietly led. The All-Share gave back nothing net — it added 0.72% and closed within 0.12% of its 3 Jul record — but it did so on two soft opening sessions and three modest gains, not a surge. The tell is beneath the index: Friday-to-Friday, 11 counters fell against 8 that rose, so the large banks (NMB at a fresh 52-week high, CRDB steady) carried a board the wider market did not. Rates moved the other way from the index: the 15 Jul auction pushed the 91-day bill 10bp lower to 3.35%, deepening the gap to the 6.25% policy rate rather than closing it. June inflation eased to 4.0%, and Vision 2050 launched Friday.

Equities+0.72% on three straight gains, back near the record; but breadth negative, 8 up / 11 down.
RatesAuction 1203 (15 Jul): 91-day −10bp to 3.35%, 364-day −9bp to 7.03%. Hurdle drifts from policy.
FX / GoldShilling flat (+0.08%); gold's world reference −2.9% to $4,023. Neither changes the arithmetic.
PolicyVision 2050 launched Friday; first follow-through is statutory — NGO alignment, 1,000+ laws for review.
MacroJune CPI 4.0%, inside the band; transport (+13.6% y/y), not food, carries the pressure.
Educational reading of the week · not advice
What this week means
New Tanzanian investorA +0.72% week reads as a clean recovery, and at the index level it was. But more names fell than rose (11 down, 8 up) — breadth tells you how broad a move really is, where the headline index cannot.
Diaspora investorIn TZS the market rose 0.72%; the shilling was essentially flat (+0.08%), so a hard-currency reader kept almost the full move. Gold's world reference eased ~2.9% — a reminder that the currency is only one leg of the return.
Institutional readerCRDB was 97% of Tuesday's turnover and 93% of Thursday's — the tape was again dominated by block crossings, not breadth. DSE liquidity remains episodic, and a single line can outweigh a week of ordinary trade.
Foreign investorThe 364-day bill at 7.03% is the hurdle any equity allocation must clear. The 15 Jul auction eased the front end further below the 6.25% CBR — policy is still not passing through to short bills.
Educational interpretation by reader type · not personalised advice.

Did the domestic-only and all-share indices tell the same story over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

2026-04-16 = 100 · frozen at the 2026-07-17 covered session

+2.8%TSI · quarter+3.9%DSEI · quarter
Coverage 2026-04-16 → 2026-07-17 Vintage 2026-07-17 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateIndexRebasedRaw level
2026-04-16Tanzania Share Index1008,722.07
2026-04-17Tanzania Share Index98.80738,618.04
2026-04-20Tanzania Share Index98.2528,569.61
2026-04-21Tanzania Share Index98.14538,560.3
2026-04-22Tanzania Share Index98.10768,557.01
2026-04-23Tanzania Share Index97.50248,504.23
2026-04-24Tanzania Share Index97.04298,464.15
2026-04-27Tanzania Share Index96.73828,437.57
2026-04-28Tanzania Share Index97.66758,518.63
2026-04-29Tanzania Share Index99.18928,651.35
2026-04-30Tanzania Share Index99.46278,675.21
2026-05-04Tanzania Share Index98.11838,557.95
2026-05-05Tanzania Share Index96.88488,450.36
2026-05-06Tanzania Share Index95.78488,354.42
2026-05-07Tanzania Share Index94.94828,281.45
2026-05-08Tanzania Share Index95.99648,372.87
2026-05-11Tanzania Share Index97.51198,505.06
2026-05-12Tanzania Share Index97.50168,504.16
2026-05-13Tanzania Share Index97.08358,467.69
2026-05-14Tanzania Share Index96.50688,417.39
2026-05-15Tanzania Share Index96.41068,409
2026-05-18Tanzania Share Index96.85678,447.91
2026-05-19Tanzania Share Index96.99868,460.29
2026-05-20Tanzania Share Index96.72918,436.78
2026-05-21Tanzania Share Index97.74668,525.53
2026-05-22Tanzania Share Index98.16728,562.21
2026-05-25Tanzania Share Index99.87148,710.85
2026-05-26Tanzania Share Index100.4968,765.33
2026-05-28Tanzania Share Index100.72928,785.67
2026-05-29Tanzania Share Index100.6018,774.49
2026-06-01Tanzania Share Index101.0368,812.43
2026-06-02Tanzania Share Index101.69428,869.84
2026-06-03Tanzania Share Index101.24978,831.07
2026-06-04Tanzania Share Index101.59558,861.23
2026-06-05Tanzania Share Index101.06038,814.55
2026-06-08Tanzania Share Index101.09868,817.89
2026-06-09Tanzania Share Index100.65158,778.89
2026-06-10Tanzania Share Index100.05318,726.7
2026-06-11Tanzania Share Index99.0748,641.3
2026-06-12Tanzania Share Index98.5338,594.12
2026-06-15Tanzania Share Index97.46958,501.36
2026-06-16Tanzania Share Index98.5268,593.51
2026-06-17Tanzania Share Index98.81448,618.66
2026-06-18Tanzania Share Index99.27688,658.99
2026-06-19Tanzania Share Index99.15678,648.52
2026-06-22Tanzania Share Index98.86548,623.11
2026-06-23Tanzania Share Index98.73948,612.12
2026-06-24Tanzania Share Index99.01028,635.74
2026-06-25Tanzania Share Index99.24678,656.37
2026-06-26Tanzania Share Index99.8328,707.42
2026-06-29Tanzania Share Index100.1418,734.37
2026-06-30Tanzania Share Index100.63098,777.1
2026-07-01Tanzania Share Index101.56558,858.61
2026-07-02Tanzania Share Index102.17728,911.97
2026-07-03Tanzania Share Index103.15328,997.09
2026-07-06Tanzania Share Index102.97668,981.69
2026-07-08Tanzania Share Index102.71778,959.11
2026-07-09Tanzania Share Index102.41338,932.56
2026-07-10Tanzania Share Index102.24958,918.27
2026-07-13Tanzania Share Index102.18438,912.59
2026-07-14Tanzania Share Index101.96638,893.57
2026-07-15Tanzania Share Index102.41838,933
2026-07-16Tanzania Share Index102.50198,940.29
2026-07-17Tanzania Share Index102.83488,969.32
2026-04-16DSE All Share1003,956.8
2026-04-17DSE All Share98.99413,917
2026-04-20DSE All Share98.42753,894.58
2026-04-21DSE All Share98.18363,884.93
2026-04-22DSE All Share98.24023,887.17
2026-04-23DSE All Share97.62333,862.76
2026-04-24DSE All Share97.56523,860.46
2026-04-27DSE All Share97.32493,850.95
2026-04-28DSE All Share98.03333,878.98
2026-04-29DSE All Share98.94813,915.18
2026-04-30DSE All Share99.05153,919.27
2026-05-04DSE All Share97.94483,875.48
2026-05-05DSE All Share96.96573,836.74
2026-05-06DSE All Share96.13913,804.03
2026-05-07DSE All Share95.55123,780.77
2026-05-08DSE All Share96.39513,814.16
2026-05-11DSE All Share97.45553,856.12
2026-05-12DSE All Share97.71233,866.28
2026-05-13DSE All Share97.1293,843.2
2026-05-14DSE All Share96.82523,831.18
2026-05-15DSE All Share96.7623,828.68
2026-05-18DSE All Share97.09133,841.71
2026-05-19DSE All Share97.18893,845.57
2026-05-20DSE All Share96.80073,830.21
2026-05-21DSE All Share97.55053,859.88
2026-05-22DSE All Share97.93393,875.05
2026-05-25DSE All Share99.10663,921.45
2026-05-26DSE All Share99.55823,939.32
2026-05-28DSE All Share99.49663,936.88
2026-05-29DSE All Share99.46123,935.48
2026-06-01DSE All Share99.78273,948.2
2026-06-02DSE All Share100.09383,960.51
2026-06-03DSE All Share99.90373,952.99
2026-06-04DSE All Share100.1413,962.38
2026-06-05DSE All Share99.42583,934.08
2026-06-08DSE All Share99.62143,941.82
2026-06-09DSE All Share99.46623,935.68
2026-06-10DSE All Share99.2573,927.4
2026-06-11DSE All Share98.48083,896.69
2026-06-12DSE All Share98.26223,888.04
2026-06-15DSE All Share97.59053,861.46
2026-06-16DSE All Share98.49983,897.44
2026-06-17DSE All Share98.87613,912.33
2026-06-18DSE All Share99.83123,950.12
2026-06-19DSE All Share99.58783,940.49
2026-06-22DSE All Share98.9143,913.83
2026-06-23DSE All Share98.99113,916.88
2026-06-24DSE All Share99.36293,931.59
2026-06-25DSE All Share100.56713,979.24
2026-06-26DSE All Share101.72644,025.11
2026-06-29DSE All Share102.10374,040.04
2026-06-30DSE All Share102.32514,048.8
2026-07-01DSE All Share102.53794,057.22
2026-07-02DSE All Share103.36914,090.11
2026-07-03DSE All Share104.04194,116.73
2026-07-06DSE All Share103.69344,102.94
2026-07-08DSE All Share103.67114,102.06
2026-07-09DSE All Share103.34714,089.24
2026-07-10DSE All Share103.1754,082.43
2026-07-13DSE All Share103.13034,080.66
2026-07-14DSE All Share103.11314,079.98
2026-07-15DSE All Share103.40054,091.35
2026-07-16DSE All Share103.69344,102.94
2026-07-17DSE All Share103.92194,111.98

Read: The rebased paths show the part of the domestic move that the broader headline index does—and does not—capture.

Index scope differs. Neither line is the return of every constituent or of a reader’s portfolio.

The week in review

The DSE claws back its early-July dip — up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its record

Signal

4,111.98 ended the week up 0.72% and 8,969.32 up 0.57% — two soft sessions on Monday and Tuesday, then three straight gains into Friday.

Why it matters

It recovers almost all of the pullback from the 3 Jul record of 4,116.73 — Friday's close sits just 0.12% below it. But the advance outran its own breadth: over the week 8 counters rose against 11 that fell, so the large banks carried an index the wider board did not.

What to watch

Whether the All-Share retakes the record on ordinary two-sided breadth rather than another CRDB crossing, and whether the front-end bill rate keeps drifting away from the 6.25% policy rate.

Source: DSE · Edition 18 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
Equities

The index rose 0.72% — but more names fell than rose

Signal

Friday-to-Friday breadth was negative: 8 counters up, 11 down, 9 unchanged across the 28-name board. TCCL (+7.21%) and TBL (+2.82%) led; SWIS (−9.89%) and DCB (−9.09%) lagged.

Why it matters

A bank-and-brewer tape. NMB (+0.30%) printed a fresh 52-week high at 16,750 and the two large banks held the index up while the broader board drifted lower.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether next week's gains broaden beyond the large caps, or the record is retaken on another one-name crossing.

Source: DSE · Edition 18 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Get the Weekly Brief every weekend.

A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies — and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.

Choose Daily, Weekly, or both — they are separate subscriptions. Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.
Rates

The mid-week auction pushed the front end further from policy, not toward it

Signal

Auction 1203 (15 Jul) set the 91-day WAR at 3.35%, −10bp from the 2 Jul auction; the 364-day eased 9bp to 7.03% and the 182-day firmed 8bp to 4.78%. The CBR held at 6.25%.

Why it matters

Last week's open question was whether the mid-July auction would drag the front end toward the 6.25% policy rate. It did the opposite — the 91-day now sits roughly 290bp BELOW the CBR.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether the gap between policy and the bill curve narrows, or short bills stay pinned into August.

Source: BoT · Edition 18 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
FX / Gold

Shilling effectively flat; gold's world reference softer

Signal

USD/TZS eased about 0.08% to 2,636.63 by Friday — flat in practice. The Tume ya Madini world gold reference fell to $4,023/oz, down ~2.9% on the week from $4,145.

Why it matters

The currency did nothing to change the hard-currency arithmetic; gold's softer week sits against the Bank of Tanzania's continued gold-reserve accumulation, which it frames as reinforcing stability.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether gold steadies above the prior month's range and whether the shilling's slow drift resumes.

Source: BoT · Edition 18 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Policy

Vision 2050 launched — and the first follow-through is statutory, not financial

Signal

Dira 2050 launched Friday 17 Jul in Dodoma. Weekend reporting already carries the follow-through: a call for NGOs to align portfolios to the framework, and more than 1,000 laws flagged for review to fit the statute book to it.

Why it matters

The launch was the week's set-piece; the immediate signals are governance and legal alignment, not yet named financing vehicles — which remain the market's real question.

What to watch

What carries forward: which flagship projects — LNG-Lindi foremost — get named financing vehicles and co-investors.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 18 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
Macro

June inflation eased to 4.0% — the band test passed

Signal

June headline CPI eased to 4.0% y/y from May's 4.2%, inside the 3–5% band. Food fell 0.7% m/m while transport rose 1.6% m/m (+13.6% y/y).

Why it matters

It is the first full month in which both the fuel-subsidy exit and the 2 Jul 50bp hike could show through — and transport, not food, is carrying the pressure.

What to watch

What carries forward: whether transport pass-through keeps building, and whether a contained print keeps the policy rate on hold.

Source: NBS · Edition 18 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.31% since inception, its largest equity allocation a bank — so a week in which NMB reached a fresh 52-week high while broader breadth stayed negative is the terrain it reads most closely.

Ghost relevance: The model book's largest equity allocation is a bank; NMB reached a fresh 52-week high this week (16,750) while the broader board's breadth stayed negative, widening the gap between the large caps and everything else. Educational only; a model-book allocation, never a position or a recommendation.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →

Companies of the week

DSE · weekly move & tape weight to 2026-07-17 · covered names

How these were chosen: not hand-picked — the name that carried the tape, the week’s biggest gain and steepest fall, then the heaviest remaining names. Educational context only — not a recommendation, and never a price target.

How the week changed the terrain

The Ghost · hypothetical model book · educational

The Ghost does not move because a week moved — it updates the model-book risk map. Where the book stands → · The terrain it reads →

Week ahead — what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
next auction ~29 Jul 2026T-bill auction follow-throughAfter 1203 pushed the 91-day to 3.35% (~290bp below the CBR), the next auction tests whether the front end reconnects to the 6.25% policy rate.
week of 20 Jul 2026Vision 2050 financing vehiclesPost-launch, the market's question is which flagship projects get named financing vehicles and co-investors — LNG-Lindi foremost.
Mon 20 Jul 2026CRDB tape concentrationCRDB was 97% of Tuesday's board and 93% of Thursday's — whether ordinary two-sided turnover returns, or the crossings continue.
week of 20 Jul 2026All-Share vs the 3 Jul recordFriday closed just 0.12% below the 4,116.73 record — whether it retakes it on broad breadth or stalls.
Get the Weekly Brief every weekend.

A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies — and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.

Choose Daily, Weekly, or both — they are separate subscriptions. Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.

Weekly edition — covers verified DSE sessions Monday–Friday, frozen to the Friday official close. Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only — not investment advice. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (17 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania; inflation to the NBS. Figures are as reported and require refresh against official data.

Archive — past editions32
The rise broadens into industrials and services — but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks — but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high — while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar — so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negativeFriday, 17 July 2026The crossing did not repeat — turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessionsThursday, 16 July 2026CRDB alone was 97% of Tuesday's board — TZS 73.4bn on 27.2m shares as the All-Share eased a sixth sessionWednesday, 15 July 2026Inflation eases to 4.0% in June — the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band testTuesday, 14 July 2026The DSE reopens at 4,082.43 with four declines behind it and the week's two dated events aheadMonday, 13 July 2026Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambitionSunday, 12 July 2026Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tapeSaturday, 11 July 2026The DSE eases in its first full session back as a mild foreign net-selling tilt meets thin breadthFriday, 10 July 2026Saba Saba reframed as a managed trade showcase as the runway to the 17 July Vision 2050 launch clearsThursday, 9 July 2026Saba Saba passes as a shutdown, not a clash: Kariakoo deserted under heavy security as the market reopensWednesday, 8 July 2026Saba Saba day: DSE closed and security deployed across Dar, with a quiet commemoration the base caseTuesday, 7 July 2026Saba Saba eve: rally ban enforced with deployments across Dar as the TPDF warns off protest callsMonday, 6 July 2026Bank of Tanzania lifts the policy rate to 6.25%, the first tightening of the cycleSunday, 5 July 2026DSE All-Share caps a record week at 4,116.73 with a third straight all-time highSaturday, 4 July 2026DSE All-Share extends the record run to 4,090.11 as banks carry the fiscal-year openFriday, 3 July 2026DSE All-Share opens the fiscal year at a record 4,057.22 as domestic counters leadThursday, 2 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and Vision 2050 take legal effect as the execution clock startsWednesday, 1 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and DIRA 2050 take legal effect tomorrow as the fiscal year turnsTuesday, 30 June 2026DIRA 2050's implementation instruments launch today as Tanzania's new fiscal year opensMonday, 29 June 2026Tanzania opens its new fiscal year: DIRA 2050 instruments launch Monday, DSE reopens above 4,000Sunday, 28 June 2026DSE All-Share jumps 2.38% to 4,025 as cross-listed banks outpace the domestic tapeFriday, 26 June 2026Tanzania enters 2026/27 with a record budget and a 25-year horizonThursday, 25 June 2026Vision 2050 launch nears as DIRA planning instruments reach parliamentWednesday, 24 June 2026DIRA 2050 launches 1 July with a $47bn strategic-project spineTuesday, 23 June 2026TZS 62.33tn FY2026/27 budget takes effect 1 JulyMonday, 22 June 2026Samia to launch Vision (Dira) 2050 instruments on 29 JuneSunday, 21 June 2026