USD / TZS 2,634Gold · $/oz $4,111BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.2% Week to 2026-07-10 · verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 192
Saturday, 11 July 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session10 Jul 2026 verified close

A daily reading of the forces shaping Tanzania’s economy, markets and statecraft — and the world that moves them. Information and education, never advice.

Weekly overview — the week in review, frozen at Saturday’s publication and covering the 10 Jul 2026 verified close (the week’s last verified session). Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.


Weekly market scoreboard

2026-07-10 close · change ON THE WEEK · DSE · BoT · NBS
DSE All-Share
4,082.43
▼ -0.83%
DSEI · 10 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
8,918.27
▼ -0.88%
USD / TZS
2,634
▲ +0.19%
BoT mean · hard-currency lens
Gold · $/oz
$4,111
▼ -1.26%
world spot · reserve/hedge lens
BoT rate
6.25%
policy
CBR · policy anchor
91-day T-bill
3.35%
▼ -11bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction
364-day T-bill
7.03%
▲ +20bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction
Inflation
4.2%
latest print
NBS · monthly

The read: the Friday close, with the move across the whole week beside it — not the one-session change the daily Brief shows. The implication: the index level alone never says whether the week was broad or carried by a couple of names — breadth and turnover do.

DSE weekly tape check

DSE · 4 verified sessions to 2026-07-10 · Tue 7 Jul — Saba Saba Day, market holiday
Sessions
4
verified DSE closes
Weekly turnover
TZS 159.9bn
sum of the week's value traded
Breadth
1 up / 2 down
5 unchanged · counters that moved across the week
Best session
-0.02%
2026-07-08
Worst session
-0.33%
2026-07-06
Peak concentration
98%
CRDB carried 2026-07-10
Concentration by session — the top name’s share of each session’s turnover
2026-07-06 · NMB
63%
2026-07-08 · NMB
52%
2026-07-09 · NMB
40%
2026-07-10 · CRDB
98%

What the index hid: highly concentrated — the single heaviest name took 98% of one session’s turnover. A week can look active and still be carried by one counter. Each close, fully broken down — After the Bell →

The market under the index

DSE · weekly move per counter to 2026-07-10

The read: 1 up, 2 down, 5 unchanged across the week, ordered by how much of the tape each name actually carried. The implication: a broad week and a bank-led week can print the same index number.

Open the full DSE breadth board →
DSE+7.6%financials
EABL-2.0%industrials
JATU+0.0%other
JHL+0.0%financials
KA-4.2%aviation
SWALA+0.0%energy
USL+0.0%other
YETU+0.0%financials

The hurdle rate

Bank of Tanzania · WARs as at 2026-07-15
CBR · policy anchor
6.25%
91-day WAR · the front end
3.35%
182-day WAR
4.78%
364-day WAR · income anchor
7.03%

How to read this: short government paper is the opportunity cost of taking equity risk. Why it matters: the higher the front end sits, the more dividends, earnings growth and liquidity equities must deliver to clear it. Educational — not advice.

The transmission chain

How a weaker shilling reaches the shopping basket
The shilling
USD/TZS 2,637
▲ +0.19%
2026-07-23 · Bank of Tanzania
Fuel cap
Diesel TZS 4,182/l
▼ -1.55%
2026-07 · EWURA · monthly cap
Food
Maize TZS 76,250/t
▼ -0.33%
2026-07-01 · Wholesale · MIT
Cost of living
CPI 4.2%
latest print
May 2026 headline · NBS · monthly

How to read this: each link carries its own authority and its own lag — FX moves daily, fuel caps monthly, food weekly, CPI monthly. Why it matters: this is the chain that turns a currency move into a cost-of-living move. Descriptive, not predictive — the links are shown, not forecast.

KANZA CAPITAL PARTNERSThe Weekly Brief
The DSE week to 10 Jul
DSEI -0.83% · TSI -0.88% · USD/TZS +0.19% on the week
Read: Headline and domestic agreed, the shilling gave ground.
Weekly moves computed from verified closes · 2026-07-10kanzacapitalpartners.com · education, not advice

The week card — built to be screenshotted and shared. Every figure is computed from the verified record.

The week in 90 seconds
  1. Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tape
  2. One CRDB crossing was 98% of Friday's tape — the index never showed it
  3. No auction this week — the hurdle rate is unchanged, and the bill curve stays steep
WatchVision 2050 (Dira 2050) launchFri 17 Jul 2026
Read the full Brief ↓
Market mood

Orderly retreat. The market gave back a slice of its 3 Jul record across four straight small declines, with breadth clearly negative (7 up / 16 down) — this was broad, low-conviction selling rather than one name cracking. Rates did not move: no auction fell in the week, so the 6.25% CBR and a still-steep bill curve set an unchanged hurdle. The week's one genuinely large event, a TZS 137.7bn CRDB crossing on Friday, never showed up in the index at all.

EquitiesFour sessions, four declines; 7 up / 16 down — broad, shallow, unhurried.
RatesNo auction this week. CBR 6.25%; 91-day 3.45%, 364-day 7.12% — hurdle unchanged.
FX / GoldQuiet: shilling −0.19% on the week, gold −1.3%. Neither changes the arithmetic.
PolicyVision 2050 (17 Jul) is next week's set-piece — financing vehicles the open question.
RiskPolitical calm held after Saba Saba; the watch is execution, not the headline.
Educational reading of the week · not advice
What this week means
New Tanzanian investorA −0.83% week sounds dramatic; it isn't. What matters is that far more names fell than rose (16 down, 7 up) — breadth tells you how broad a move really was, where the index alone can't.
Diaspora investorIn TZS the market fell 0.83%; the shilling also eased 0.19%, so a hard-currency reader lost a little more than the index implies. Currency is part of the return.
Institutional readerFriday's CRDB crossing was 98% of the day's turnover — a reminder that DSE liquidity is episodic, and that a single block can dwarf a week of ordinary trade.
Foreign investorThe 364-day bill at 7.12% is the hurdle any equity allocation must clear. With the CBR at 6.25% and no auction this week, that hurdle did not move.
Educational interpretation by reader type · not personalised advice.

Did the domestic-only and all-share indices tell the same story over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

2026-04-09 = 100 · frozen at the 2026-07-10 covered session

+3.9%TSI · quarter+4.6%DSEI · quarter
Coverage 2026-04-09 → 2026-07-10 Vintage 2026-07-10 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateIndexRebasedRaw level
2026-04-09Tanzania Share Index1008,580.5
2026-04-10Tanzania Share Index101.69238,725.71
2026-04-13Tanzania Share Index102.36498,783.42
2026-04-14Tanzania Share Index103.06588,843.56
2026-04-15Tanzania Share Index102.69948,812.12
2026-04-16Tanzania Share Index101.64998,722.07
2026-04-17Tanzania Share Index100.43758,618.04
2026-04-20Tanzania Share Index99.87318,569.61
2026-04-21Tanzania Share Index99.76468,560.3
2026-04-22Tanzania Share Index99.72628,557.01
2026-04-23Tanzania Share Index99.11118,504.23
2026-04-24Tanzania Share Index98.6448,464.15
2026-04-27Tanzania Share Index98.33428,437.57
2026-04-28Tanzania Share Index99.27898,518.63
2026-04-29Tanzania Share Index100.82578,651.35
2026-04-30Tanzania Share Index101.10388,675.21
2026-05-04Tanzania Share Index99.73728,557.95
2026-05-05Tanzania Share Index98.48338,450.36
2026-05-06Tanzania Share Index97.36528,354.42
2026-05-07Tanzania Share Index96.51488,281.45
2026-05-08Tanzania Share Index97.58028,372.87
2026-05-11Tanzania Share Index99.12088,505.06
2026-05-12Tanzania Share Index99.11038,504.16
2026-05-13Tanzania Share Index98.68538,467.69
2026-05-14Tanzania Share Index98.09918,417.39
2026-05-15Tanzania Share Index98.00138,409
2026-05-18Tanzania Share Index98.45488,447.91
2026-05-19Tanzania Share Index98.5998,460.29
2026-05-20Tanzania Share Index98.3258,436.78
2026-05-21Tanzania Share Index99.35948,525.53
2026-05-22Tanzania Share Index99.78688,562.21
2026-05-25Tanzania Share Index101.51918,710.85
2026-05-26Tanzania Share Index102.15418,765.33
2026-05-28Tanzania Share Index102.39118,785.67
2026-05-29Tanzania Share Index102.26088,774.49
2026-06-01Tanzania Share Index102.7038,812.43
2026-06-02Tanzania Share Index103.37218,869.84
2026-06-03Tanzania Share Index102.92028,831.07
2026-06-04Tanzania Share Index103.27178,861.23
2026-06-05Tanzania Share Index102.72778,814.55
2026-06-08Tanzania Share Index102.76668,817.89
2026-06-09Tanzania Share Index102.31218,778.89
2026-06-10Tanzania Share Index101.70398,726.7
2026-06-11Tanzania Share Index100.70868,641.3
2026-06-12Tanzania Share Index100.15878,594.12
2026-06-15Tanzania Share Index99.07778,501.36
2026-06-16Tanzania Share Index100.15168,593.51
2026-06-17Tanzania Share Index100.44478,618.66
2026-06-18Tanzania Share Index100.91478,658.99
2026-06-19Tanzania Share Index100.79278,648.52
2026-06-22Tanzania Share Index100.49668,623.11
2026-06-23Tanzania Share Index100.36858,612.12
2026-06-24Tanzania Share Index100.64388,635.74
2026-06-25Tanzania Share Index100.88428,656.37
2026-06-26Tanzania Share Index101.47928,707.42
2026-06-29Tanzania Share Index101.79338,734.37
2026-06-30Tanzania Share Index102.29128,777.1
2026-07-01Tanzania Share Index103.24128,858.61
2026-07-02Tanzania Share Index103.86318,911.97
2026-07-03Tanzania Share Index104.85518,997.09
2026-07-06Tanzania Share Index104.67568,981.69
2026-07-08Tanzania Share Index104.41248,959.11
2026-07-09Tanzania Share Index104.1038,932.56
2026-07-10Tanzania Share Index103.93658,918.27
2026-04-09DSE All Share1003,903.38
2026-04-10DSE All Share101.25053,952.19
2026-04-13DSE All Share101.9663,980.12
2026-04-14DSE All Share102.68084,008.02
2026-04-15DSE All Share102.44073,998.65
2026-04-16DSE All Share101.36863,956.8
2026-04-17DSE All Share100.34893,917
2026-04-20DSE All Share99.77463,894.58
2026-04-21DSE All Share99.52733,884.93
2026-04-22DSE All Share99.58473,887.17
2026-04-23DSE All Share98.95943,862.76
2026-04-24DSE All Share98.90043,860.46
2026-04-27DSE All Share98.65683,850.95
2026-04-28DSE All Share99.37493,878.98
2026-04-29DSE All Share100.30233,915.18
2026-04-30DSE All Share100.40713,919.27
2026-05-04DSE All Share99.28523,875.48
2026-05-05DSE All Share98.29283,836.74
2026-05-06DSE All Share97.45483,804.03
2026-05-07DSE All Share96.85893,780.77
2026-05-08DSE All Share97.71433,814.16
2026-05-11DSE All Share98.78933,856.12
2026-05-12DSE All Share99.04953,866.28
2026-05-13DSE All Share98.45833,843.2
2026-05-14DSE All Share98.15033,831.18
2026-05-15DSE All Share98.08633,828.68
2026-05-18DSE All Share98.42013,841.71
2026-05-19DSE All Share98.5193,845.57
2026-05-20DSE All Share98.12553,830.21
2026-05-21DSE All Share98.88563,859.88
2026-05-22DSE All Share99.27423,875.05
2026-05-25DSE All Share100.46293,921.45
2026-05-26DSE All Share100.92073,939.32
2026-05-28DSE All Share100.85823,936.88
2026-05-29DSE All Share100.82243,935.48
2026-06-01DSE All Share101.14823,948.2
2026-06-02DSE All Share101.46363,960.51
2026-06-03DSE All Share101.27093,952.99
2026-06-04DSE All Share101.51153,962.38
2026-06-05DSE All Share100.78653,934.08
2026-06-08DSE All Share100.98483,941.82
2026-06-09DSE All Share100.82753,935.68
2026-06-10DSE All Share100.61543,927.4
2026-06-11DSE All Share99.82863,896.69
2026-06-12DSE All Share99.6073,888.04
2026-06-15DSE All Share98.92613,861.46
2026-06-16DSE All Share99.84783,897.44
2026-06-17DSE All Share100.22933,912.33
2026-06-18DSE All Share101.19743,950.12
2026-06-19DSE All Share100.95073,940.49
2026-06-22DSE All Share100.26773,913.83
2026-06-23DSE All Share100.34593,916.88
2026-06-24DSE All Share100.72273,931.59
2026-06-25DSE All Share101.94343,979.24
2026-06-26DSE All Share103.11864,025.11
2026-06-29DSE All Share103.50114,040.04
2026-06-30DSE All Share103.72554,048.8
2026-07-01DSE All Share103.94124,057.22
2026-07-02DSE All Share104.78384,090.11
2026-07-03DSE All Share105.46584,116.73
2026-07-06DSE All Share105.11254,102.94
2026-07-08DSE All Share105.08994,102.06
2026-07-09DSE All Share104.76154,089.24
2026-07-10DSE All Share104.58714,082.43

Read: The rebased paths show the part of the domestic move that the broader headline index does—and does not—capture.

Index scope differs. Neither line is the return of every constituent or of a reader’s portfolio.

The week in review

Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tape

Signal

4,082.43 closed the Saba Saba-shortened week down 0.83%, 8,918.27 down 0.88% — every session lower, none by more than a third of a percent.

Why it matters

It is the first pullback from the 3 Jul record. The drift was orderly, but breadth was clearly negative — 7 counters up against 16 down — so the selling was broad, not a one-name story.

What to watch

Whether the 17 Jul Vision 2050 launch and the ~16 Jul auction give the tape a reason to re-engage, and whether bank breadth reasserts.

Source: DSE · Edition 11 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
Equities

One CRDB crossing was 98% of Friday's tape — the index never showed it

Signal

Friday turned over TZS 140.2bn against ~4–9bn in every other session this week; CRDB alone was TZS 137.7bn of it (58.5m shares, 1,655 deals).

Why it matters

A block crossing below the board price. The index moved −0.17% that day: price told you nothing about who was actually trading.

What to watch

Whether a second tranche follows, and whether CRDB's price (−3.93% on the week) stabilises once the crossing clears.

Source: DSE · Edition 11 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Get the Weekly Brief every weekend.

A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies — and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.

Choose Daily, Weekly, or both — they are separate subscriptions. Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.
Rates

No auction this week — the hurdle rate is unchanged, and the bill curve stays steep

Signal

CBR 6.25%; the 2 Jul auction left the 91-day WAR at 3.45% and the 364-day at 7.12%. Nothing repriced between Monday and Friday.

Why it matters

The front end sits ~280bp BELOW the policy rate while the 364-day sits above it — policy is not yet passing through to short bills.

What to watch

The next auction (~16 Jul) is the test of whether the front end follows the CBR or stays pinned.

Source: BoT · Edition 11 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
FX / Gold

A quiet currency week: the shilling eases 0.19%, gold gives back 1.3%

Signal

USD/TZS drifted to 2,634.46 by Friday, +0.19% on the week; gold eased ~1.3% off the prior Friday's level.

Why it matters

Neither move is large enough to change the hard-currency arithmetic — but for a diaspora reader the TZS drift quietly trims a TZS-denominated return.

What to watch

Whether the shilling's drift persists into the Vision 2050 week, and the June CPI print mid-month.

Source: BoT · Edition 11 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Policy

Vision 2050 lands Friday — the financing vehicles are the market's real question

Signal

Dira 2050 launches in Dodoma on 17 Jul; the first five-year tranche is funded at TZS 12.50tn, with donor grants set to fall ~39%.

Why it matters

The $1tn path leans on mobilising private and external capital. Named vehicles — LNG-Lindi foremost — would be the first hard evidence.

What to watch

Which flagship projects get named financing vehicles and co-investors, and any MoUs signed around 17 Jul.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 11 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.12% since inception; its largest equity allocation is a bank, so a week of negative bank breadth is the terrain it reads most closely.

Ghost relevance: The model book's largest equity allocation is a bank (NMB, +1.58% on the week) while the other large bank (CRDB) fell 3.93% — the week widened the gap between them. Educational only; a model-book allocation, never a position or a recommendation.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →

Companies of the week

DSE · weekly move & tape weight to 2026-07-10 · covered names

How these were chosen: not hand-picked — the name that carried the tape, the week’s biggest gain and steepest fall, then the heaviest remaining names. Educational context only — not a recommendation, and never a price target.

How the week changed the terrain

The Ghost · hypothetical model book · educational

The Ghost does not move because a week moved — it updates the model-book risk map. Where the book stands → · The terrain it reads →

Week ahead — what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
Fri 17 Jul 2026Vision 2050 (Dira 2050) launchThe set-piece of the week: which flagship projects get named financing vehicles and co-investors.
~Thu 16 Jul 2026T-bill auction (No. 1203)First auction since 2 Jul — tests whether the front end follows the 6.25% CBR or stays ~280bp below it.
~mid-Jul 2026June CPI printFirst inflation-band test after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 2 Jul hike.
Mon 13 Jul 2026CRDB follow-throughWhether Friday's block crossing draws a second tranche, or the price steadies once it clears.
Get the Weekly Brief every weekend.

A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies — and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.

Choose Daily, Weekly, or both — they are separate subscriptions. Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.

Weekly edition — covers verified DSE sessions Monday–Friday, frozen to the Friday official close. Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only — not investment advice. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (10 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania. Figures are as reported and require refresh against official data.

Archive — past editions32
The rise broadens into industrials and services — but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks — but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high — while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar — so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026The DSE claws back its early-July dip — up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its recordSaturday, 18 July 2026CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negativeFriday, 17 July 2026The crossing did not repeat — turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessionsThursday, 16 July 2026CRDB alone was 97% of Tuesday's board — TZS 73.4bn on 27.2m shares as the All-Share eased a sixth sessionWednesday, 15 July 2026Inflation eases to 4.0% in June — the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band testTuesday, 14 July 2026The DSE reopens at 4,082.43 with four declines behind it and the week's two dated events aheadMonday, 13 July 2026Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambitionSunday, 12 July 2026The DSE eases in its first full session back as a mild foreign net-selling tilt meets thin breadthFriday, 10 July 2026Saba Saba reframed as a managed trade showcase as the runway to the 17 July Vision 2050 launch clearsThursday, 9 July 2026Saba Saba passes as a shutdown, not a clash: Kariakoo deserted under heavy security as the market reopensWednesday, 8 July 2026Saba Saba day: DSE closed and security deployed across Dar, with a quiet commemoration the base caseTuesday, 7 July 2026Saba Saba eve: rally ban enforced with deployments across Dar as the TPDF warns off protest callsMonday, 6 July 2026Bank of Tanzania lifts the policy rate to 6.25%, the first tightening of the cycleSunday, 5 July 2026DSE All-Share caps a record week at 4,116.73 with a third straight all-time highSaturday, 4 July 2026DSE All-Share extends the record run to 4,090.11 as banks carry the fiscal-year openFriday, 3 July 2026DSE All-Share opens the fiscal year at a record 4,057.22 as domestic counters leadThursday, 2 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and Vision 2050 take legal effect as the execution clock startsWednesday, 1 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and DIRA 2050 take legal effect tomorrow as the fiscal year turnsTuesday, 30 June 2026DIRA 2050's implementation instruments launch today as Tanzania's new fiscal year opensMonday, 29 June 2026Tanzania opens its new fiscal year: DIRA 2050 instruments launch Monday, DSE reopens above 4,000Sunday, 28 June 2026DSE All-Share jumps 2.38% to 4,025 as cross-listed banks outpace the domestic tapeFriday, 26 June 2026Tanzania enters 2026/27 with a record budget and a 25-year horizonThursday, 25 June 2026Vision 2050 launch nears as DIRA planning instruments reach parliamentWednesday, 24 June 2026DIRA 2050 launches 1 July with a $47bn strategic-project spineTuesday, 23 June 2026TZS 62.33tn FY2026/27 budget takes effect 1 JulyMonday, 22 June 2026Samia to launch Vision (Dira) 2050 instruments on 29 JuneSunday, 21 June 2026