USD / TZS 2,636Gold · $/oz $4,080BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.0% 15 Jul 2026 verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 197
Thursday, 16 July 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session15 Jul 2026 verified close

A daily reading of the forces shaping Tanzania’s economy, markets and statecraft — and the world that moves them. Information and education, never advice.

The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Wednesday, 15 July 2026 — the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.


DSE All-Share
4,091.35▲ 0.28%
DSEI · 15 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
8,933.00
TSI · 15 Jul · domestic
USD / TZS
2,636
BoT mean · 15 Jul sheet · −7.6% YTD
Gold · $/oz
$4,080
BoT ref · 15 Jul mark ≈TZS 10.75m/oz
BoT rate
6.25%
CBR · Q3 2026
91-day T-bill
3.35%
BoT WAR · latest auction
364-day T-bill
7.03%
BoT WAR · latest auction
Inflation
4.0%
NBS · Jun 2026 headline
Today in 60 seconds
  1. The crossing did not repeat — turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessions
  2. Auction No. 1203 answers the pass-through test the wrong way: the 91-day eases to 3.35% and the gap to a 6.25% CBR widens
  3. No Vision 2050 launch falls on 17 July — Dira 2050 was launched in July 2025, and this Brief withdraws the dated event it carried
WatchT-bill auction No. 1204 — 91-day pass-through≈29 Jul 2026 · cadence-inferred, not an official BoT date
Read the full Brief ↓

Did the domestic-only and all-share indices tell the same story over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

2026-04-14 = 100 · frozen at the 2026-07-15 covered session

+1.0%TSI · quarter+2.1%DSEI · quarter
Coverage 2026-04-14 → 2026-07-15 Vintage 2026-07-15 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateIndexRebasedRaw level
2026-04-14Tanzania Share Index1008,843.56
2026-04-15Tanzania Share Index99.64458,812.12
2026-04-16Tanzania Share Index98.62628,722.07
2026-04-17Tanzania Share Index97.44998,618.04
2026-04-20Tanzania Share Index96.90238,569.61
2026-04-21Tanzania Share Index96.7978,560.3
2026-04-22Tanzania Share Index96.75988,557.01
2026-04-23Tanzania Share Index96.1638,504.23
2026-04-24Tanzania Share Index95.70988,464.15
2026-04-27Tanzania Share Index95.40928,437.57
2026-04-28Tanzania Share Index96.32588,518.63
2026-04-29Tanzania Share Index97.82668,651.35
2026-04-30Tanzania Share Index98.09648,675.21
2026-05-04Tanzania Share Index96.77048,557.95
2026-05-05Tanzania Share Index95.55388,450.36
2026-05-06Tanzania Share Index94.4698,354.42
2026-05-07Tanzania Share Index93.64388,281.45
2026-05-08Tanzania Share Index94.67768,372.87
2026-05-11Tanzania Share Index96.17248,505.06
2026-05-12Tanzania Share Index96.16228,504.16
2026-05-13Tanzania Share Index95.74988,467.69
2026-05-14Tanzania Share Index95.1818,417.39
2026-05-15Tanzania Share Index95.08618,409
2026-05-18Tanzania Share Index95.52618,447.91
2026-05-19Tanzania Share Index95.66618,460.29
2026-05-20Tanzania Share Index95.40038,436.78
2026-05-21Tanzania Share Index96.40388,525.53
2026-05-22Tanzania Share Index96.81868,562.21
2026-05-25Tanzania Share Index98.49948,710.85
2026-05-26Tanzania Share Index99.11548,765.33
2026-05-28Tanzania Share Index99.34548,785.67
2026-05-29Tanzania Share Index99.2198,774.49
2026-06-01Tanzania Share Index99.6488,812.43
2026-06-02Tanzania Share Index100.29728,869.84
2026-06-03Tanzania Share Index99.85888,831.07
2026-06-04Tanzania Share Index100.19988,861.23
2026-06-05Tanzania Share Index99.6728,814.55
2026-06-08Tanzania Share Index99.70978,817.89
2026-06-09Tanzania Share Index99.26878,778.89
2026-06-10Tanzania Share Index98.67868,726.7
2026-06-11Tanzania Share Index97.71298,641.3
2026-06-12Tanzania Share Index97.17948,594.12
2026-06-15Tanzania Share Index96.13058,501.36
2026-06-16Tanzania Share Index97.17258,593.51
2026-06-17Tanzania Share Index97.45698,618.66
2026-06-18Tanzania Share Index97.91298,658.99
2026-06-19Tanzania Share Index97.79468,648.52
2026-06-22Tanzania Share Index97.50728,623.11
2026-06-23Tanzania Share Index97.3838,612.12
2026-06-24Tanzania Share Index97.658,635.74
2026-06-25Tanzania Share Index97.88338,656.37
2026-06-26Tanzania Share Index98.46068,707.42
2026-06-29Tanzania Share Index98.76538,734.37
2026-06-30Tanzania Share Index99.24858,777.1
2026-07-01Tanzania Share Index100.17028,858.61
2026-07-02Tanzania Share Index100.77368,911.97
2026-07-03Tanzania Share Index101.73618,997.09
2026-07-06Tanzania Share Index101.56198,981.69
2026-07-08Tanzania Share Index101.30668,959.11
2026-07-09Tanzania Share Index101.00648,932.56
2026-07-10Tanzania Share Index100.84488,918.27
2026-07-13Tanzania Share Index100.78068,912.59
2026-07-14Tanzania Share Index100.56558,893.57
2026-07-15Tanzania Share Index101.01148,933
2026-04-14DSE All Share1004,008.02
2026-04-15DSE All Share99.76623,998.65
2026-04-16DSE All Share98.72213,956.8
2026-04-17DSE All Share97.72913,917
2026-04-20DSE All Share97.16973,894.58
2026-04-21DSE All Share96.92893,884.93
2026-04-22DSE All Share96.98483,887.17
2026-04-23DSE All Share96.37583,862.76
2026-04-24DSE All Share96.31843,860.46
2026-04-27DSE All Share96.08113,850.95
2026-04-28DSE All Share96.78053,878.98
2026-04-29DSE All Share97.68363,915.18
2026-04-30DSE All Share97.78573,919.27
2026-05-04DSE All Share96.69313,875.48
2026-05-05DSE All Share95.72663,836.74
2026-05-06DSE All Share94.91053,804.03
2026-05-07DSE All Share94.33013,780.77
2026-05-08DSE All Share95.16323,814.16
2026-05-11DSE All Share96.21013,856.12
2026-05-12DSE All Share96.46363,866.28
2026-05-13DSE All Share95.88773,843.2
2026-05-14DSE All Share95.58783,831.18
2026-05-15DSE All Share95.52553,828.68
2026-05-18DSE All Share95.85063,841.71
2026-05-19DSE All Share95.94693,845.57
2026-05-20DSE All Share95.56363,830.21
2026-05-21DSE All Share96.30393,859.88
2026-05-22DSE All Share96.68243,875.05
2026-05-25DSE All Share97.84013,921.45
2026-05-26DSE All Share98.28593,939.32
2026-05-28DSE All Share98.22513,936.88
2026-05-29DSE All Share98.19013,935.48
2026-06-01DSE All Share98.50753,948.2
2026-06-02DSE All Share98.81463,960.51
2026-06-03DSE All Share98.6273,952.99
2026-06-04DSE All Share98.86133,962.38
2026-06-05DSE All Share98.15523,934.08
2026-06-08DSE All Share98.34833,941.82
2026-06-09DSE All Share98.19513,935.68
2026-06-10DSE All Share97.98853,927.4
2026-06-11DSE All Share97.22233,896.69
2026-06-12DSE All Share97.00653,888.04
2026-06-15DSE All Share96.34333,861.46
2026-06-16DSE All Share97.2413,897.44
2026-06-17DSE All Share97.61253,912.33
2026-06-18DSE All Share98.55543,950.12
2026-06-19DSE All Share98.31513,940.49
2026-06-22DSE All Share97.653,913.83
2026-06-23DSE All Share97.72613,916.88
2026-06-24DSE All Share98.09313,931.59
2026-06-25DSE All Share99.28193,979.24
2026-06-26DSE All Share100.42644,025.11
2026-06-29DSE All Share100.79894,040.04
2026-06-30DSE All Share101.01754,048.8
2026-07-01DSE All Share101.22754,057.22
2026-07-02DSE All Share102.04814,090.11
2026-07-03DSE All Share102.71234,116.73
2026-07-06DSE All Share102.36834,102.94
2026-07-08DSE All Share102.34634,102.06
2026-07-09DSE All Share102.02644,089.24
2026-07-10DSE All Share101.85654,082.43
2026-07-13DSE All Share101.81244,080.66
2026-07-14DSE All Share101.79544,079.98
2026-07-15DSE All Share102.07914,091.35

Read: The rebased paths show the part of the domestic move that the broader headline index does—and does not—capture.

Index scope differs. Neither line is the return of every constituent or of a reader’s portfolio.

DSE Tape Check

Market breadth
Broad advance
13 rose, 6 fell
Advancers against decliners on the verified DSE close.
Turnover concentration
Concentrated
One name carried the tape
NMB Bank was 45% of turnover — index moves overstate how broad the day really was.

Descriptive flags from the verified DSE close — not signals, predictions, or advice. The official close, fully broken down — After the Bell →

Markets

The crossing did not repeat — turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessions

Signal

The board turned over ≈TZS 2.71bn on 15 Jul against ≈TZS 75.7bn on 14 Jul; 13 names rose, 6 fell, and all five indices closed higher.

Why it matters

The 28x drop confirms Tuesday's CRDB line was a crossing, not breadth; the index rose to 4,091.35 (+0.28%), ending a six-session slide off the 3 Jul peak.

What to watch

Whether breadth holds at ordinary turnover, and whether NMB and CRDB — 89% of Wednesday's value — stay the only size on the board.

Source: DSE · Edition 16 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
Rates

Auction No. 1203 answers the pass-through test the wrong way: the 91-day eases to 3.35% and the gap to a 6.25% CBR widens

Signal

BoT Auction No. 1203, held 15 Jul: 91-day WAR 3.3472%, −10.8bp from No. 1202; 364-day 7.0258%, −9.2bp. Every tenor oversubscribed.

Why it matters

The front end is easing through the July hike rather than toward it — the 91-day now sits ~290bp below the CBR, a wider gap than before the 50bp move.

What to watch

Whether No. 1204 (~29 Jul, cadence-inferred) extends a second decline, and whether the 364-day holds above 7%.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 16 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
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Correction

No Vision 2050 launch falls on 17 July — Dira 2050 was launched in July 2025, and this Brief withdraws the dated event it carried

Signal

Earlier editions listed a “Vision 2050 launch, Dodoma, Thu 17 Jul 2026”. No such event is scheduled; the item is withdrawn.

Why it matters

Dira 2050 was launched in July 2025 and its planning instruments slated for 29 Jun 2026 in Dar; implementation began 1 Jul — no launch is left to hold.

What to watch

Named financing vehicles against the TZS 12.50tn first Five-Year Plan allocation, rather than a launch date.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 16 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
Regulation

BoT frames crypto as an AML question first — the Governor cites terror-financing and illicit flows, with no text gazetted

Signal

The Governor is reported citing terror-financing and illicit-flow risk behind BoT's crypto posture; no text or licensing regime published.

Why it matters

An AML-led framing implies a narrower perimeter than a market-development one; until a text is gazetted, nothing changes for bank or mobile-money rails.

What to watch

The gazetted text, custody and licensing terms, treatment of foreign stablecoins, and any CBDC linkage.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 16 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
Corridors

The Tanzania–Burundi border post gets its first dated marker: an AfDB Expression of Interest for Manyovu/Mugina Phase 1

Signal

The AfDB issued an Expression of Interest for Phase 1 of the Manyovu/Mugina One Stop Border Post on the Tanzania–Burundi frontier.

Why it matters

An EoI is a sourcing step, not a signed works contract — but it is the first dated step on a corridor that has carried announcements without instruments.

What to watch

Tender award, works contract and disclosed funding source on Manyovu/Mugina, and the construction start date.

Source: African Development Bank · Edition 16 Jul 2026
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.10% since inception at the 14 Jul mark, with NMB Bank its largest equity allocation.

Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book — educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →
Week ahead — what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
≈29 Jul 2026 · cadence-inferred, not an official BoT dateT-bill auction No. 1204 — 91-day pass-throughWhether a second 91-day decline through the hike makes the transmission gap the quarter's central rates fact
Early Aug 2026NBS July CPI releaseJune's 4.0% masked transport at +13.6% y/y — the mix matters more than the headline print
Late Jul 2026DSE Week 29 weekly reportA fifth straight week of foreign net selling would move a streak toward a regime; turnover ex-block is the number
≈ Early Oct 2026 · quarterly cadence; 2026/27 calendar unpublishedNext Monetary Policy CommitteeNo MPC is due before Q4 — until then the shilling rests on reserves and the gold programme, not the CBR
UndatedBoT crypto and stablecoin frameworkThe gazetted text, not the statement, is what changes anything for bank and mobile-money rails
Get the Daily Brief before the market opens.

A free daily Tanzania market-intelligence note covering DSE moves, rates, FX, policy, macro signals and what to watch next.

Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.

Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only — not investment advice. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (15 Jul 2026); rates to the Bank of Tanzania; FX to the BoT 15 Jul indicative sheet and gold to the BoT 15 Jul mark; inflation to the NBS. Figures are as reported and require refresh against official data.

Archive — past editions32
The rise broadens into industrials and services — but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks — but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high — while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar — so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026The DSE claws back its early-July dip — up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its recordSaturday, 18 July 2026CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negativeFriday, 17 July 2026CRDB alone was 97% of Tuesday's board — TZS 73.4bn on 27.2m shares as the All-Share eased a sixth sessionWednesday, 15 July 2026Inflation eases to 4.0% in June — the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band testTuesday, 14 July 2026The DSE reopens at 4,082.43 with four declines behind it and the week's two dated events aheadMonday, 13 July 2026Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambitionSunday, 12 July 2026Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tapeSaturday, 11 July 2026The DSE eases in its first full session back as a mild foreign net-selling tilt meets thin breadthFriday, 10 July 2026Saba Saba reframed as a managed trade showcase as the runway to the 17 July Vision 2050 launch clearsThursday, 9 July 2026Saba Saba passes as a shutdown, not a clash: Kariakoo deserted under heavy security as the market reopensWednesday, 8 July 2026Saba Saba day: DSE closed and security deployed across Dar, with a quiet commemoration the base caseTuesday, 7 July 2026Saba Saba eve: rally ban enforced with deployments across Dar as the TPDF warns off protest callsMonday, 6 July 2026Bank of Tanzania lifts the policy rate to 6.25%, the first tightening of the cycleSunday, 5 July 2026DSE All-Share caps a record week at 4,116.73 with a third straight all-time highSaturday, 4 July 2026DSE All-Share extends the record run to 4,090.11 as banks carry the fiscal-year openFriday, 3 July 2026DSE All-Share opens the fiscal year at a record 4,057.22 as domestic counters leadThursday, 2 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and Vision 2050 take legal effect as the execution clock startsWednesday, 1 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and DIRA 2050 take legal effect tomorrow as the fiscal year turnsTuesday, 30 June 2026DIRA 2050's implementation instruments launch today as Tanzania's new fiscal year opensMonday, 29 June 2026Tanzania opens its new fiscal year: DIRA 2050 instruments launch Monday, DSE reopens above 4,000Sunday, 28 June 2026DSE All-Share jumps 2.38% to 4,025 as cross-listed banks outpace the domestic tapeFriday, 26 June 2026Tanzania enters 2026/27 with a record budget and a 25-year horizonThursday, 25 June 2026Vision 2050 launch nears as DIRA planning instruments reach parliamentWednesday, 24 June 2026DIRA 2050 launches 1 July with a $47bn strategic-project spineTuesday, 23 June 2026TZS 62.33tn FY2026/27 budget takes effect 1 JulyMonday, 22 June 2026Samia to launch Vision (Dira) 2050 instruments on 29 JuneSunday, 21 June 2026