Macro
Inflation eases to 4.0% in June — the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band test
SignalJune headline CPI eased to 4.0% y/y from May's 4.2% per the flash read; food fell 0.7% m/m while transport rose 1.6% m/m (+13.6% y/y).
Why it mattersThe print lands inside the 3–5% band in the first month both the subsidy exit and the 2 Jul hike could show up — transport, not food, carries the pressure.
What to watchThe full NBS release confirming the flash, and whether this week's bill auction moves the 91-day toward the 6.25% CBR.
Source: NBS · Edition 14 Jul 2026
Go deeper →Markets
A fifth session of drift leaves the All-Share easing on a board that traded about TZS 5bn without blocks
SignalThe All-Share closed 13 Jul at 4,080.66 (−0.04%), a fifth straight easing session; ex-block turnover ≈TZS 5.2bn by board approximation.
Why it mattersThe drift since the 3 Jul peak stays orderly — TCCL's 8.8% volume bid ran against SWIS and DSE plc retracements while the banks held flat to soft.
What to watchWhether breadth in CRDB and NMB reasserts at ordinary turnover before Thursday's Vision 2050 launch, and whether TCCL's bid extends.
Source: DSE · Edition 14 Jul 2026
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Rates
The pass-through test is due: 91-day bills at 3.45% still sit ~280bp below the 6.25% CBR ahead of Auction No. 1203
SignalThe BoT register re-checked 14 Jul still shows Auction No. 1202 (2 Jul) — 91-day WAR 3.4549%, 364-day 7.1175%; No. 1203 expected ~15–16 Jul.
Why it mattersA policy rate the short bill ignores is a policy rate that isn't transmitting; the 364-day already clears the CBR, the 91-day does not.
What to watchWhether the 91-day WAR steps toward 6.25% at No. 1203, and whether the 364-day holds above 7%.
Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 14 Jul 2026
Go deeper →Capital markets
A regional East Africa ETF's weekly disclosure puts Tanzania at 34.7% of the book, with NMB its largest DSE constituent
SignalThe week-ended-10-Jul disclosure weights Kenya 50.5%, Tanzania 34.7%; DSE names held: NMB 11.2%, TCC 8.4%, TCCL 4.7%, TPCC 4.6%, CRDB 3.0%.
Why it mattersRegional passive flow tilts to Nairobi's float depth; within the Tanzania sleeve it concentrates in NMB and cement/consumer names rather than breadth.
What to watchWeek-over-week drift in the Tanzania weight, the banking-vs-cement split, and any new DSE constituent that widens the sleeve.
Source: DSE · Edition 14 Jul 2026
Go deeper →Policy
Vision 2050 launches Thursday in Dodoma as Tanzania presents its Voluntary National Review at the UN today
SignalDira 2050 — a $1tn-economy plan across nine sectors — launches 17 Jul; the VNR goes to the UN today with the IMF exit in hand.
Why it mattersWith donor grants set to fall ~39%, delivery leans on private and external capital; the market test is named financing vehicles, LNG-Lindi foremost.
What to watchNamed vehicles and MoUs around the launch, and any listed-sector read-through in banks, cement and energy.
Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 14 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
The Ghost
The model book
The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.05% since inception at the 13 Jul mark, with NMB Bank its largest equity allocation.
Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book — educational, not advice.
Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →