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KCP visual investigation · first edition · 2026 Q3

Did Tanzania’s latest T-bill auction move as one curve?

No. The 35-day, 91-day and 364-day weighted-average yields eased, while the 182-day yield rose. The auction moved by tenor, not as one parallel shift.

Confidence · high for published auction facts Vintage · auction 1203 · 2026-07-15 Public interpretation · information and education only

This answer describes two Bank of Tanzania auction results. It does not identify a cause, forecast the next auction or recommend any security.

The reading method

Four checks before calling it a curve move

01 · Align

Use the two latest auctions with all four bill tenors present.

02 · Measure

Subtract the prior weighted-average yield from the latest, tenor by tenor.

03 · Widen

Check twelve consecutive complete-auction comparisons for persistence.

04 · Separate

Keep bills and bonds in their own calendars and panels.

Test your read · answer before returning to the chart

Which tenor moved most in absolute basis points?

Choose one answer

Visual investigation · public

One auction, read at three distances

Start with the latest curve, widen to consecutive auction changes, then place bills and bonds inside their own histories. Every view keeps the Bank of Tanzania auction vintage attached.

Short end: the 35-day and 91-day weighted-average yields fell by 29 and 10 basis points.

Middle: the 182-day yield moved the other way, rising 8 basis points.

One year: the 364-day yield eased 9 basis points to 7.03%.

01 · Latest auction

How did the Treasury-bill yield curve change between the two latest complete auctions?

Treasury-bill auction curve

Auction 1202 (2026-07-02) and 1203 (2026-07-15)

-29 bp35 days-10 bp91 days+8 bp182 days-9 bp364 days
Coverage 2023-01-18 → 2026-07-15 Vintage 2026-07-15 · final Revision current · v0
Treasury-bill auction curve. Exact values underlying the chart.
AuctionTenorYield, % p.a.
A1202 · 2 Jul35 days2.48
A1203 · 15 Jul35 days2.19
A1202 · 2 Jul91 days3.45
A1203 · 15 Jul91 days3.35
A1202 · 2 Jul182 days4.7
A1203 · 15 Jul182 days4.78
A1202 · 2 Jul364 days7.12
A1203 · 15 Jul364 days7.03

Read: The move was not parallel: the 35-day and 91-day yields fell, the 182-day yield rose, and the 364-day yield eased by 9 basis points.

Which Treasury-bill tenors moved most at the latest auction?

Yield change by Treasury-bill tenor

Weighted-average yield · 2026-07-02 versus 2026-07-15

-29 bp35 days-10 bp91 days+8 bp182 days-9 bp364 days
Coverage 2023-01-18 → 2026-07-15 Vintage 2026-07-15 · final Revision current · v0
Yield change by Treasury-bill tenor. Exact values underlying the chart.
TenorPrevious, %Latest, %Change, bp
35 days2.482.19-29
91 days3.453.35-10
182 days4.74.788
364 days7.127.03-9

Read: The dumbbell view separates the direction and size of each tenor move; it does not collapse the auction into the 364-day result.

02 · Bill history

Did the latest tenor moves extend or interrupt their recorded paths?

Treasury-bill yields by tenor through time

Weighted-average yields · history shown from 2023-07-15 · missing auctions remain gaps

2.19%35 days3.35%91 days4.78%182 days7.03%364 days
Coverage 2023-01-18 → 2026-07-15 Vintage 2026-07-15 · final Revision current · v0
Treasury-bill yields by tenor through time. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateTenorYield, % p.a.
2023-08-0935 days4.08
2023-08-2335 days4.32
2023-09-1335 days4.98
2023-11-0835 days6.29
2024-01-3135 days6.29
2024-02-1435 days6.29
2024-03-1335 days5.93
2024-03-2735 days5.93
2025-01-1535 days6.5
2025-03-1235 days6.5
2025-04-0935 days6.5
2025-04-2335 days6.5
2025-08-1335 days6.5
2025-08-2735 days6.5
2025-09-1735 days6.2
2025-10-0835 days6.13
2025-10-2235 days5.75
2025-11-0535 days5.92
2025-11-1935 days5.35
2025-12-0335 days5.38
2026-01-0735 days5.24
2026-01-2135 days5.47
2026-02-1135 days4.9
2026-02-2535 days4.6
2026-03-1135 days4.32
2026-03-2535 days4.07
2026-04-0835 days3.99
2026-04-2235 days3.63
2026-05-0635 days3.39
2026-05-2035 days3.07
2026-06-0335 days2.91
2026-06-1735 days2.73
2026-07-0235 days2.48
2026-07-1535 days2.19
2023-08-0991 days4.54
2023-08-2391 days4.76
2023-09-1391 days5.65
2023-09-2791 days6.03
2023-10-2591 days7.77
2023-11-0891 days8.83
2023-12-2091 days9.1
2024-01-3191 days8.5
2024-02-1491 days8.43
2024-03-1391 days8.19
2024-03-2791 days8.14
2024-04-2491 days8.07
2024-07-2491 days5.13
2024-09-1891 days5.94
2024-12-2491 days7.76
2025-02-1291 days7.4
2025-02-2691 days7.45
2025-04-0991 days7.5
2025-04-2391 days7.5
2025-07-2391 days7.46
2025-08-1391 days7.4
2025-08-2791 days7.33
2025-09-1791 days6.81
2025-10-0891 days6.53
2025-10-2291 days5.9
2025-11-0591 days6.47
2025-11-1991 days5.69
2025-12-0391 days5.93
2026-01-0791 days5.71
2026-01-2191 days5.76
2026-02-1191 days5.09
2026-02-2591 days4.85
2026-03-1191 days4.29
2026-03-2591 days4.16
2026-04-0891 days4.08
2026-04-2291 days3.97
2026-05-0691 days3.83
2026-05-2091 days3.73
2026-06-0391 days3.57
2026-06-1791 days3.56
2026-07-0291 days3.45
2026-07-1591 days3.35
2023-07-26182 days5.85
2023-08-09182 days6.73
2023-08-23182 days6.94
2023-09-13182 days6.95
2023-09-27182 days7.34
2023-10-11182 days7.56
2023-11-08182 days8.56
2023-11-22182 days8.9
2023-12-20182 days9.4
2024-01-31182 days9.3
2024-02-14182 days8.97
2024-02-28182 days8.9
2024-03-13182 days8.65
2024-03-27182 days8.57
2024-04-24182 days8.45
2024-05-29182 days7.99
2024-06-12182 days6.57
2024-08-28182 days7.3
2024-10-09182 days8.17
2024-11-06182 days8.25
2024-11-20182 days8.35
2024-12-24182 days8.27
2025-01-15182 days8.13
2025-01-29182 days8.26
2025-04-09182 days8.47
2025-04-23182 days8.47
2025-05-14182 days8.33
2025-05-28182 days8.14
2025-08-13182 days7.85
2025-08-27182 days7.08
2025-09-17182 days6.56
2025-10-08182 days6.81
2025-10-22182 days6
2025-11-05182 days5.97
2025-11-19182 days5.87
2025-12-03182 days5.91
2026-01-07182 days5.82
2026-01-21182 days5.89
2026-02-11182 days5.95
2026-02-25182 days5.75
2026-03-11182 days5.59
2026-03-25182 days5.78
2026-04-08182 days5.57
2026-04-22182 days5.36
2026-05-06182 days5.27
2026-05-20182 days5.19
2026-06-03182 days5.04
2026-06-17182 days4.92
2026-07-02182 days4.7
2026-07-15182 days4.78
2023-07-26364 days6.97
2023-08-09364 days6.93
2023-08-23364 days7.13
2023-09-13364 days7.32
2023-09-27364 days8.11
2023-10-11364 days8.63
2023-10-25364 days8.83
2023-11-08364 days9.28
2023-11-22364 days9.71
2023-12-06364 days10
2023-12-20364 days11.03
2024-01-03364 days11.41
2024-01-17364 days11.81
2024-01-31364 days12.22
2024-02-14364 days12.2
2024-02-28364 days12.3
2024-03-13364 days12.07
2024-03-27364 days11.57
2024-04-08364 days10.81
2024-04-24364 days9.96
2024-05-08364 days8.61
2024-05-29364 days7.04
2024-06-12364 days6.75
2024-07-10364 days8.41
2024-07-24364 days9.28
2024-08-14364 days10.43
2024-08-28364 days10.83
2024-09-18364 days10.98
2024-10-09364 days11.19
2024-10-23364 days12.13
2024-11-06364 days12.78
2024-11-20364 days12.79
2024-12-04364 days12.95
2024-12-24364 days12.99
2025-01-15364 days12.78
2025-01-29364 days12.48
2025-02-12364 days12.25
2025-02-26364 days11.72
2025-03-12364 days10.75
2025-03-26364 days9.48
2025-04-09364 days8.93
2025-04-23364 days8.91
2025-05-14364 days9.13
2025-05-28364 days8.72
2025-07-02364 days8.42
2025-07-23364 days7.85
2025-08-13364 days6.92
2025-08-27364 days6.66
2025-09-17364 days5.99
2025-10-08364 days5.61
2025-10-22364 days6.3
2025-11-05364 days6.55
2025-11-19364 days6.35
2025-12-03364 days6.24
2026-01-07364 days6.19
2026-01-21364 days6.23
2026-02-11364 days6.23
2026-02-25364 days6.17
2026-03-11364 days6.4
2026-03-25364 days5.2
2026-04-08364 days5.78
2026-04-22364 days5.66
2026-05-06364 days5.68
2026-05-20364 days5.58
2026-06-03364 days6.38
2026-06-17364 days6.92
2026-07-02364 days7.12
2026-07-15364 days7.03

Read: A shared scale makes the separation between short and long bill tenors comparable without forcing missing tenor auctions into the line.

The auction calendar is rolling: not every tenor appears at every auction.

Were recent Treasury-bill moves broad, persistent or isolated by tenor?

Auction-to-auction yield changes

Basis-point change between consecutive complete auctions · latest 12 comparisons

Coverage 2023-01-18 → 2026-07-15 Vintage 2026-07-15 · final Revision current · v0
Auction-to-auction yield changes. Exact values underlying the chart.
AuctionDateTenorChange, bp
A11922026-02-1135d-57
A11922026-02-1191d-67
A11922026-02-11182d6
A11922026-02-11364d0
A11932026-02-2535d-30
A11932026-02-2591d-24
A11932026-02-25182d-20
A11932026-02-25364d-6
A11942026-03-1135d-28
A11942026-03-1191d-56
A11942026-03-11182d-16
A11942026-03-11364d23
A11952026-03-2535d-25
A11952026-03-2591d-13
A11952026-03-25182d19
A11952026-03-25364d-120
A11962026-04-0835d-8
A11962026-04-0891d-8
A11962026-04-08182d-21
A11962026-04-08364d58
A11972026-04-2235d-36
A11972026-04-2291d-11
A11972026-04-22182d-21
A11972026-04-22364d-12
A11982026-05-0635d-24
A11982026-05-0691d-14
A11982026-05-06182d-9
A11982026-05-06364d2
A11992026-05-2035d-32
A11992026-05-2091d-10
A11992026-05-20182d-8
A11992026-05-20364d-10
A12002026-06-0335d-16
A12002026-06-0391d-16
A12002026-06-03182d-15
A12002026-06-03364d80
A12012026-06-1735d-18
A12012026-06-1791d-1
A12012026-06-17182d-12
A12012026-06-17364d54
A12022026-07-0235d-25
A12022026-07-0291d-11
A12022026-07-02182d-22
A12022026-07-02364d20
A12032026-07-1535d-29
A12032026-07-1591d-10
A12032026-07-15182d8
A12032026-07-15364d-9

Read: The matrix shows whether a move repeats across auctions and tenors instead of elevating one latest print into a trend.

03 · Long-dated auctions

How have published long-dated government yields moved within each auction tenor?

Treasury-bond auction yields by tenor

Weighted-average yield to maturity · 2023-07-22 to 2026-07-22 · panels share one scale

Coverage 2023-08-02 → 2026-07-08 Vintage 2026-07-22 · final Revision current · v0
Treasury-bond auction yields by tenor. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateTenorYield to maturity, %
2023-09-062-year9.59
2023-11-152-year11.64
2024-01-102-year12.14
2025-02-052-year12.55
2025-04-162-year12.08
2025-07-092-year12.17
2025-10-152-year10.05
2026-03-042-year8.36
2023-08-025-year10.09
2023-10-185-year10.45
2024-07-175-year13.87
2024-10-165-year12.41
2025-03-195-year13.14
2025-05-215-year12.94
2025-07-165-year13.18
2025-09-105-year12.48
2025-11-265-year10.54
2026-04-295-year9.54
2023-08-3010-year11.51
2023-10-0410-year11.88
2023-12-1310-year11.85
2024-01-2410-year12.03
2024-04-1710-year12.3
2024-05-1510-year15.4
2024-08-0710-year13.26
2024-12-1110-year15.4
2025-01-2210-year14.08
2025-04-3010-year14.26
2025-07-3010-year13.74
2025-10-0110-year12.45
2026-01-1410-year11.3
2026-04-1510-year9.4
2026-06-1010-year10.39
2023-09-2015-year12.34
2023-11-2915-year12.75
2024-02-0715-year13.66
2024-05-2215-year15.16
2024-07-0315-year15.05
2024-09-1115-year15.35
2024-10-0215-year15.76
2025-03-0515-year14.63
2025-06-2515-year14.59
2025-08-2015-year13.91
2025-11-1215-year12.08
2026-02-1815-year10.78
2026-05-1315-year10.39
2023-11-0120-year13.51
2024-02-2120-year15.83
2024-03-2020-year15.51
2024-04-3020-year15.24
2024-06-0520-year15.13
2024-07-3120-year15.17
2024-08-2120-year15.4
2024-09-2520-year15.45
2024-10-3020-year15.76
2024-11-2620-year15.64
2024-12-1820-year15.71
2025-02-1920-year15.28
2025-04-0320-year15.11
2025-06-1820-year14.5
2025-09-0320-year13.55
2025-12-1720-year12.02
2026-03-1820-year10.71
2026-05-2820-year10.43
2026-07-0820-year11.33
2023-08-1625-year13.81
2023-12-2725-year14.39
2024-03-0625-year16.79
2024-04-0325-year16.13
2024-06-1925-year15.38
2024-09-0425-year15.42
2024-11-1325-year15.93
2025-01-0825-year15.84
2025-05-0725-year15.29
2025-06-0425-year14.8
2025-08-0625-year14.42
2025-09-2425-year13.19
2026-02-0425-year11.99
2026-06-2425-year11.89

Read: Panel separation preserves each tenor’s auction calendar while the shared scale keeps their levels comparable.

History-window omission: 7-year had no observation inside the displayed three-year window.

Test your read · answer before returning to the chart

Which tenor moved in the opposite direction to the other three?

Choose one answer

Counter-view

What would make this reading too strong?

One auction can reflect tenor-specific bid composition. A non-parallel move in one pair of auctions is a verified observation, but not yet a durable regime. Bill and bond tenors also follow different auction calendars, so the long-dated panels supply context rather than a same-day extension of the bill curve.

Revision box · first edition

This is the first flagship edition, so there is no prior narrative to revise. Future editions will state changed source values, changed methods and changed conclusions separately. Chart citations already carry deterministic VDS edition identifiers.

Open the public revision log →

What to watch

Public observations that can update the answer

The next complete Treasury-bill auction, whether the 182-day divergence repeats, and whether consecutive-auction changes become broad across tenors. These are monitoring questions, not trade signals.

Methods and reuse

Every view travels with its evidence

Source: Bank of Tanzania — bot.go.tz/TBills & /TBonds ↗. Weighted-average yields are shown as published. Basis-point change equals (latest − prior) × 100. Missing auction tenors remain absent. Use each chart’s Source, Cite, Share and Download controls for its exact vintage and view.

Return to the live government-securities series →